Weekly US flat steel prices continued their recent ascent, with hot-rolled coils (HRC) exceeding $1,000/nt ($1,102/mt) or $50.00/cwt., for the first time in more than two years, SteelOrbis weekly data shows.
Market insiders report a combination of high scrap pricing, reduced imports as a result of Section 232 steel tariffs, and improving domestic demand, as the primary reasoning behind continued strength in domestic flat steel markets.
In January 2024, SteelOrbis data shows HRC prices climbed as high as $54.00/cwt., ($1,080/nt or $1,190/mt) amid reports of thin service center inventories, improved demand from the US automotive sector and rising scrap prices. Spot HRC as well as other flat steel prices later fell dramatically as scrap prices slumped and domestic demand began to withdraw.
Weekly SteelOrbis market surveys indicate HRC spot prices finished the week up another $11/nt to $1,001/nt ($1,103/mt), or 50.05/cwt., up from $990/nt, ($1,091/mt), or $49.50/cwt., one week earlier. Since early September 2025, HRC prices have increased more than 25 percent, when spot trade was noted around $800/nt ($882/mt), or $40/cwt. On a yearly basis, SteelOrbis data shows HRC spot prices have risen 43 percent from on average $700/nt ($772/mt), or $35.00/cwt.
“We’re hearing sideways for scrap in March and possibly down for April,” remarked one Midwest steel scrap supplier. “Inflows are starting to pick up from about two weeks ago when weather was a disaster and we couldn’t even start our trucks and equipment. Now that we’ve gotten through that, inflows are a lot more manageable.”
And while the likelihood of steady to lower monthly scrap pricing could reduce mills’ operating costs fairly quickly, continued low imports and steady domestic demand could prevent large scale near-term price declines, insiders said.
While actual flat steel import data for February won’t be available for several months due to government data publishing delays, initial flat steel import license requests as published in Washington, DC.-based International Trade Administration’s (ITA) US Steel Import Monitor, indicate flat steel import license requests for February fell 67.4 percent to a combined 1,400 metric tons (mt), from 4,300 mt recorded during January. Many market analysts say steel import license data remains a solid indicator of potential imports ahead of actual steel import data from ITA.
In the cold rolled markets, the SteelOrbis weekly CRC spot price average rose $5/nt to $1,140/nt ($1,257/mt), or $57/cwt., up from $1,135/nt ($1,251/mt), or $56.75/cwt. Based on another $11/nt increase for HRC pricing and a smaller $5/nt rise in the CRC weekly assessment, the current spread between the two key steel grades fell $6/nt on the week, settling Feb. 27 at $139/nt, or $6.95/cwt., off from $145/nt or $7.25/cwt., one week earlier.
In the coated steel markets, the SteelOrbis hot-dipped galvanized base supply prices are assessed at $1,105/nt ($1,218/mt), or $55.25/cwt., up $15/nt from $1,090/nt ($1,202/mt) or $54.50/cwt., seven days ago.
On the domestic mill pricing side, Charlotte, North Carolina-based Nucor raised its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for flat-rolled coils for a sixth time in eight weeks by another $10/nt to $990/nt ($1,091/mt), or 49.50/cwt., up from $980/nt ($1,080/mt), or $49.00/cwt. Since the end of October, when CSP prices started their recent advance following an eight-week period of stability at $875/nt, the Nucor CSP has increased more than 13 percent. Nucor‘s California Steel Industries (CSI) price rose another $10/nt on the week to $1,040/nt ($1,146/mt) or $52/cwt.
On the steel raw materials side, based on a current sideways call for March scrap, US Ohio Valley prime busheling scrap could settle near its $30/gt higher February settlement at $445-452/gt ($452-462/mt), while March shredded material could finish near its $30/gt higher February finish at $445-450/gt ($452-456/mt). In the cut grades, a sideways expectation for P&S scrap near $421-431/gt ($427-437/mt) is likely, following its $20/gt February gain. March HMS, which also rose $20/gt this month, was likely to settle near its $385-405/gt ($390-410/mt) February settle, scrap insiders told SteelOrbis.
In the US Northeast, a current sideways March expectation could yield a busheling scrap price near $400-420/gt ($406-426/mt), following its $30/gt February gains. Shredded scrap, which also rose $30/gt, could finish near $395-405/gt ($400-410/mt), while P&S and HMS grades, which both saw $20/gt February price increases, could finish near $350-360/gt ($355-365/mt), and $365-380/gt ($370-385/mt), respectively.