Following on a sustained rally in US flat steel pricing, this week’s flat steel markets were reported down as a result of a more sideways early expectation for February scrap pricing, combined with a seasonal dip in finished steel demand that normally occurs this time of year, market insiders told SteelOrbis. Heightened buyer concerns over continued increases in steel imports also weighed on buyer sentiment, they said.
And, while US inventories of available spot flat steel remain limited as a result of ongoing 50 percent steel tariffs, sources said the increased likelihood for a break in the recent run-up in US scrap pricing could be making buyers more hesitant to accept continued price increases. Higher domestic prices, they say, will ultimately encourage more import activity.
“From conversations I’ve had with the mills this week, it appears that pricing is fairly flat to a bit less overall,” said one US Gulf Coast flat steel insider.
The weekly SteelOrbis HRC spot price average price closed the week $2/nt less at on average $938/nt ($1,034/mt), or $46.90/cwt., off from $940/nt ($1,036/mt), or $47.00/cwt., one week prior.
While it remains very early to make a robust forecast for February scrap, market insiders told SteelOrbis February busheling scrap, a closely-monitored flat steel benchmark grade, may settle sideways to potentially $10-15/gt up during February supply negotiations.
“Everything I’m hearing right now is reflecting a sideways sentiment for February scrap,” remarked one US Midwest mill-based scrap buyer. “After the $50/gt gains we saw over the past two months, I’m not sure there’s much more room for further price increases.”
As flat markets continued to rally recently, market insiders told SteelOrbis the combination of rising steel production costs as a result of continued strength in local scrap markets with reduced imports was prompting US mills to increase weekly production levels to keep pace with demand, leading to longer lead times for available new flat steel rolling schedules, tighter supply management through ongoing supply allocations to customers, and recent higher spot pricing. That situation might be changing, insiders said, though it remains early for next month's scrap, and the most recent import data is dated.
According to final US Census Bureau data released January 8 by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), US imports remains reduced versus year-ago levels, though have begun rising on a month-to-month basis. Most recent available data for October, 2025, shows the US imported a total of 1,730,000 net tons (nt) of steel for the month, including 1,335,000 nt of finished steel, up 11 percent and 12.9 percent respectively versus September, 2025. On a yearly basis though, total and finished steel imports remain off by 10.7 percent and 14 percent, respectively. The data also shows from November 2024 to October 2025, total and finished steel imports were off 8.9 percent and 10.7 percent, respectively, versus the previous 12-month period, AISI said in a press release.
In the cold rolled markets, spot pricing was assessed $10/nt lower on the week at $1,090/nt ($1,202/mt), or $54.50, off from $1,100/nt ($1,213/mt), or $55.00/cwt., one week earlier. Based on a $2.00/nt decline in HRC pricing and a $10/nt drop in CRC values, the current spread between the two key steel grades is assessed at a recent low of $152/nt, or $7.60/cwt., off from at $160/nt ($176/mt), or $8.00/cwt., one week ago.
In the coated steel markets, the SteelOrbis hot-dipped galvanized base supply prices gave back $20/nt of recent gains to finish the week at $1,040/nt ($1,146/mt), or $52.00/cwt., off from $1,060/nt ($1,168/mt), or $53.00/cwt., seven days earlier.
This week, even as spot flat steel trade remained more limited, Charlotte, North Carolina-based Nucor kept its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for flat-rolled coils flat for another week at $950/nt ($1,047/mt), or $47.50/cwt. Since mid-October, when CSP prices started their recent advance following an eight-week period of stability, the Nucor CSP has increased nearly 9 percent.