Nucor’s (CSP) -the price charges for hot-rolled coils across all of its mills- was steady for a third straight week, following a late-March peak in prices that saw the weekly monitor at its highest level since reporting began in April of 2024. A combination of recent lower price expectations for April scrap, with a growing hesitation by domestic mills to continue to raise posted prices may be behind continued stability for Nucor CSP prices and finished steel pricing in general, market insiders told SteelOrbis.
Domestic mills, they said, are reluctant to continue to raise prices because higher price levels could make imported finished steel products more competitive with domestic supply, even given current 25 percent import tariffs and other combined import duties.
In its usual Monday letter to its customers, Nucor reported its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) flat from three weeks earlier at $935/nt ($1,031/mt), or $46.50/cwt., FOB mill, following a final $5/nt ($5/mt) rise on March 24 in a series of price increases that began on January 27. Since that date, values have risen by 24.7 percent. Prior to that, prices were stable for nearly three months at $750/nt ($827/mt) or $37.50/cwt. Insiders said recent high scrap prices have buoyed finished steel values, though the April scrap pricing is seen down.
Nucor’s California Steel Industries (CSI) monitor was also reported flat for a third week at $995/nt ($1,097/mt), or $49.75/cwt., following its previous $5.00/nt ($5/mt) price increase March 24 from $990/nt ($1,091/mt), or $49.50/cwt., on an FOB mill basis.
Insiders said recent declines in the outlook for April scrap pricing have been less supportive of HRC and other finished steel products. April shredded scrap in the vicinity of Chicago, Illinois, is discussed $40/gt ($41/mt) less versus March settled values during this week’s April domestic monthly scrap supply negotiations. In the domestic flat steel spot markets, the SteelOrbis weekly average for HRC rose last week by $35/nt ($39/mt) to $935/nt ($ 939/mt). HRC prices are expected to flatten out, insiders said.
“We’re hearing down $20/gt on primes, down $30/gt on cuts and down $40/gt from March on shreds,” said one Midwest mill buyer.
Since the industry release of the Nucor CSP in April 2024, flagging finished steel demand has resulted in Nucor reducing its CSP as low as $650/nt ($717/mt), or $32.50/cwt. during the week of July 15. Since that time, Nucor’s CSP has risen more than 43.8 percent.
Based on a down April scrap price expectation, prime grades of April busheling scrap in the US Ohio Valley could settle at $465-490/nt ($472-498/mt) on a delivered to mill basis, while shredded grades could settle near $415-420/gt ($422-427/mt) delivered. HMS and P&S grades are expected to settle near $365-385/gt ($371-391/mt), and $411-421/gt ($418-428/mt), respectively, on a delivered to mill basis.
In the US Northeast, April monthly scrap price expectations are currently seen sideways to March values with April busheling scrap seen settling near $430-450/gt ($437-457/mt), while shredded grades are discussed at $405-415/nt ($411-422/mt) on a delivered to mill basis. April HMS is seen flat from March near $375-390/nt ($381-396/mt), while P&S graded scrap is seen steady to March levels at $375-385/nt ($381-391/mt).