In the first week of December, across all major regions the hot rolled coil (HRC) market has been characterized by weak consumption, cautious buying and competitive export positioning, resulting in price movements that are uneven rather than directionally unified. Exporters are adopting diverse strategies from price cuts to selective firmness, reflecting uncertainty about any demand recovery and the desire to preserve market share in an increasingly competitive global landscape. Asian markets have seen the clearest signs of downward movement. Vietnam’s Hoa Phat has reduced local HRC prices, a direct reflection of persistently weak domestic demand and stronger competition from imports. The adjustment also follows a softening trend in ex-China HRC export prices, though Chinese suppliers have recently attempted slight price increases in the Middle East, where Emirati buyers remained inactive due to holidays, limiting any meaningful trading activity. India, however, has maintained a more stable stance, with HRC offers held steady in the Gulf and the EU, but buyers across these regions have remained largely muted. In Turkey, trading has persisted at a moderate pace, with buyers showing a preference for imported HRC offering shorter lead times. Meanwhile, Egypt has re-entered the export market, offering HRC at price levels aligned with Turkish and Algerian suppliers. Europe has presented a mix of firmness and fragility. While both local and imported HRC prices have shown some stability, overall trading activity has remained subdued due to persistently weak end-user demand.
This week, although overall ex-China HRC trading activity has remained slow, some upward movement has emerged in export prices. The pace of the increases has varied: major Chinese mills have raised their offers only slightly as they remain focused on steady export expansion, while smaller private mills and traders have applied more noticeable hikes. Meanwhile, offers from non-VAT traders have also edged up only marginally and have continued to be the most competitive in the market. Specifically, the price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills has been estimated at $465-485/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $475/mt FOB, up by $2.5/mt week on week. Meanwhile, offers from smaller private mills have been voiced mainly at $465-475/mt FOB, compared to $455-460/mt CFR last week. At the same time, while offers from most Chinese traders have settled at $465-475/mt FOB, up by $10-15/mt week on week, according to sources offers from non-VAT traders have been voiced at $450-452/mt FOB, up by $2-5/mt week on week. As of December 5, HRC futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,320/mt ($469/mt), increasing by RMB 18/mt ($3/mt) since November 28, while remaining the same compared to the previous trading day, December 4.
This week, Vietnamese HRC producer Hoa Phat Group announced its new prices for February delivery, decreasing them by around $15/mt month on month. Specifically, Hoa Phat’s prices for non-skin passed SAE1006 and SS400 HRC have been announced at VND 13,290-13,320/kg ($504-505/mt) CIF. The decision has been attributed to the slow demand in the country and is in line with market sources’ expectations, as import quotations have failed to recover in new offers even though Chinese futures have shown a slight recovery. However, according to sources, the steelmaker has also been offering lower prices for bigger orders at around $490-500/mt CIF, while discounts at around $485/mt CIF have been reported for orders above 20,000 mt. In the import segment, the latest offers for ex-China Q235 HRC have been reported at $475-478/mt CFR for January shipment, mainly the same as last week. At the same time, indicative offers for ex-China SAE1006 HRC have settled at $495/mt CFR, the same as last week, while other foreign suppliers have been offering their materials in the range of $490-515/mt CFR. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC in Vietnam has remained at $490-495/mt CFR.
Most ex-India HRC offers have remained stable during the past week across key trade destinations such as the Middle East and Europe. Trading activity has been very limited, with Middle Eastern buyers largely absent due to holidays, while European customers continue to avoid new bookings because of CBAM-related risks that few are willing to assume. However, lower offers have begun to surface in Vietnam, accompanied by market rumors of deals concluded at reduced price levels, though these reports have not yet been confirmed. Specifically, ex-India HRC offers in the Middle East have remained mainly unchanged in the range of $480-490/mt FOB, while trade activity this week has been close to zero in the region due to holidays. Meanwhile, in Europe ex-India HRC offers have been estimated at $520/mt FOB and above, the same as last week, which translates to around $575/mt CFR, but buyers have remained cautious owing to weak demand and have preferred to avoid risks of trade barriers including the impending carbon tax. Furthermore, indicative offers for ex-India HRC in Vietnam have been voiced at $485-490/mt CFR, compared to $485-500/mt CFR last week. Besides, talk about a deal signed for ex-India HRC through a Chinese trader at $480-482/mt CFR Vietnam for January shipment has been circulating in the market, but no official confirmation has been provided by the time of publication. As a result, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India SAE1006 HRC has moved to $470-520/mt FOB, down by $10/mt on the lower end of the range.
Turkey’s local HRC prices have settled at $555-570/mt ex-works, while buyers expect $545-550/mt ex-works levels may also be available for serious orders. Most mills have started offering for February deliveries, but some volumes for January are still available. Export offers are at $540-550/mt FOB officially, but small discounts might be applicable, while the activity of European buyers has been low due to CBAM-related uncertainties. Import HRC offers from China have stood at $485-495/mt CFR with no deals closed, while Russia has been indicating offers at $470-495/mt CFR, depending on the supplier. Malaysia is in the market with $545-550/mt CFR, while Egypt has offered $560/mt CFR for February shipments. Moreover, the Egyptian mill has sold around 10,000 mt at $557/mt CFR.
In Egypt, export prices are at $545-550/mt FOB, while buyers consider $540-545/mt FOB to be workable, but in the markets outside of the EU. Local HRC offers in Egypt stand at EGP 35,000/mt or $645/mt ex-works (at $1 = EGP 47.57). Import offers from Russia are at $475-480/mt CFR, while China is offering at up to $500/mt CFR, both for February shipments.
In the GCC, some import activity has been observed from Saudi and Omani buyers over the past week, while Emirati buyers have been mostly inactive due to the national holiday. Import offers across the region have remained largely stable, although Chinese suppliers supported by steady export activity have attempted to slightly raise their offer levels. SS400 grade HRC offers have been set at $485-500/mt CFR, up from $480-495/mt CFR, for December and January shipments. This week, Saudi buyers have purchased additional volumes from China, securing two separate lots at $500-505/mt CFR. Saudi buyers have also shown interest in Russian material and concluded a purchase of 50,000 mt at $455/mt CFR for January shipment last week. Russian suppliers have remained among the most aggressive in the market and have continued to offer HRC at $460-470/mt CFR for January shipment. Toward the end of last week, an Indian supplier is reported to have sold approximately 10,000 mt of HRC to Omani buyers at $505-515/mt CFR for January shipment, although this transaction has not been confirmed. Otherwise, Indian mills have maintained stable offers at $500-515/mt CFR for January shipment. Similarly, Japanese suppliers have kept their offers unchanged over the past week at $495-500/mt CFR for January shipment.
HRC market conditions in the EU have changed little in the first week of December, with mills in both northern Europe and Italy holding firmly to their higher price targets. Trading, however, has remained subdued, as supply for the first quarter of 2026 is largely secured after buyers had increased their third quarter bookings from domestic and import sources. More specifically, local mills in northern Europe have kept targeting €630-650/mt ex-works for new orders for January and February deliveries, the same as last week, while in Italy, mills have been targeting €610-630/mt for January delivery, up by €10/mt on the lower end of the range week on week. Meanwhile, the tradable price levels in the north for January delivery coils have remained at €610-620/mt ex-works, the same as last week, while the tradable price level in Italy for January delivery has been estimated at €590-610/mt ex-works, compared to €590-600/mt ex-works last week. At the same time, more import HRC offers have surfaced mostly on DDP basis, including CBAM costs, but buying interest has remained limited. In the import segment, indicative offer prices for HRC have settled at €485-520/mt CFR, up by €10/mt on the higher end of the range, while HRC import offers including CBAM costs on DDP basis have been voiced at €580-610/mt levels, depending on the supplier, up by €10/mt on the higher end of the range week on week.