India's bulk hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports in November 2025 totalled 260,212 mt, marking a sharp decline of 54 percent from an estimated 571,656 mt in November 2024. Moreover, imports dropped by 34 percent compared to 391,856 mt recorded in October which saw elevated shipments ahead of expected implementation of a key trade measure.
In November, South Korea, China, and Japan emerged as India's top three bulk HRC exporters shipping 119,701 mt, 491,85 mt, and 43,138 mt, respectively. Additionally, imports from South Korea fell by 49 percent year-on-year and shipments from China decreased by 70.71 percent, while those from Japan dropped by 56.12 percent over the same period.
The month-on-month decline in HRC imports reflects market caution following the expiry of the provisional 200-day safeguard duty on flat steel products on 7 November.
Key industry highlights
Final safeguard duty recommendation: India's Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) has submitted its final findings, recommending a three-year staggered safeguard duty on imports of certain flat-rolled steel products (including HRC) starting at 12 percent in the first year, declining to 11.5 percent and 11 percent thereafter. The final implementation awaits the official gazette from the Ministry of Finance.
Temporary tariff expires: A temporary 12 percent tariff imposed in April 2025 on all steel imports, which ran for 200 days, expired in November adding complexity to the immediate trade landscape as the market awaits the formal notification of the new three-year safeguard measure.
Export volumes surge year-on-year
On the export front, India's bulk HRC export volumes surged sharply by 136 percent year-on-year in November to 373,986 mt compared to an estimated 158,596 mt in November 2024. This marks a substantial rebound from last year driven by sustained global demand, particularly from the European Union (EU) ahead of the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
However, export volumes declined month-on-month by 16 percent compared to 442,393 mt shipped in October. The high October volume was attributed to aggressive allocations and sustained bookings from the EU and the Middle East. Despite the monthly dip overall export activity remained on an uptrend compared to the previous year supported by favourable global steel market sentiments and India's growing focus on FTA-backed trade routes.
Outlook
The near-term outlook is highly dependent on the Ministry of Finance's decision regarding the DGTR's recommended three-year safeguard duty on flat steel. If implemented, the measure is expected to provide significant relief and price leverage to Indian steelmakers by curbing low-cost imports, especially those benefiting from FTAs without sufficient value addition. While this will protect the domestic industry it may raise input costs for downstream sectors like automotive and construction.
Source: BigMint