Here are some highlights from WSD's breakthrough report - Autobody Warfare: Aluminum Attack - published last November.
- Ricardo Corp, a firm with great expertise in engine design and an understanding of the CAFÉ miles-per-gallon standards by type of vehicle, was hired by WSD to answer some key questions and to provide key data. It demonstrated that, because of improved engines, less-expensive-than-aluminum and stronger steels should be sufficient to meet the future CAFÉ standards.
- Engines are reduced in size with almost no reduction in effectiveness.
- Weight reduction accounts for only about 12% of the reason for the gain in mileage.
- The body-in-white, where the potential reduction in weight is 20% or more using advanced high strength steels (AHSS), is 3.5 times the weight of the closures. Closures are hang-on parts such as doors and hoods in which aluminum has made strong inroads.
- The additional cost to the automotive company for weight reduction using advanced high strength steels (AHSS) may not be substantial because the higher price is offset by the use of stronger and thinner steels.
- The price outlook for primary aluminum ingot should be a worry for the automotive buyer. China's aluminum capacity reductions in Northwest China, which account for about 40% of the country's aluminum capacity, have electricity generating plants that could be shifted by about 2020, when the country's electricity grid arrives in this region, to supply electricity to the grid rather than to serve the often highly polluting aluminum reduction plants. Many aluminum reduction plants elsewhere in China are high cost in part because they depend on alumina produced using offshore bauxite. Aluminum reduction plant capacity additions outside of China are minor.
- Aluminum common alloy sheet since January 2014 is up 10% to about $1.54 per pound; hot-rolled band is down more than 25% to about $0.23 per pound.
- Life-cycle emissions of noxious fumes is a negative for aluminum versus steel, claims the steel industry. The aluminum industry disagrees, it claims, when taking hydropower plants and scrap recovery into account. Savings due to lower weight in the car are more-than-offset by the higher emissions to produce the aluminum ingot, claims the steel industry.
- Aluminum autobody sheet shipments may peak-out by about 2018, having risen remarkably to about 3.4 billion pounds from about 0.6 billion pounds in 2014.
- AHHS automotive sheet shipments are forecast by WSD to surge to 25.6 billion pounds in 2025 versus 8.5 billion pounds in 2014; however, overall, there's a 5% decline in steel autobody sheet deliveries of all types by 2025 to 46.1 billion pounds.
- Good news for the steel mills is that AHSSs appear to offer them a higher profit margin. WSD's research indicates the steel mills only obtain a 15-20% EBTIDA margin on automotive sheet products versus 35-40% for aluminum. This is one of the reasons for the explosive rise in the aluminum industry's investment to produce automotive sheet.
MPG Gains due to Engine, Power train and Reduced Weight
