According to the Japanese Ministry of Trade (METI), Japan’s crude steel output is forecast to decrease 2.5 percent year on year to 23.5 million mt in the January-March quarter next year, while the output is expected to fall by 16 percent year on year to 82.5 million mt in the April 2020-March 2021 fiscal year. Meanwhile, the Japan Iron and Steel Federation (JISF) expects the country’s crude steel output to recover to 90 million mt in the 2021-22 fiscal year.
Domestic demand for finished steel is forecast to fall by 1.5 percent year on year in the given quarter to 13.95 million mt, while finished steel exports are expected to drop by 7.3 percent year on year to 6.69 million mt due to the effects of the pandemic. However finished steel exports are expected to increase by 10.7 percent compared to the forecast of the previous term, due to the recovery of economic activity. Additionally, in the January-March quarter demand for ordinary steel from the construction sector is forecast to decrease by 6.1 percent to 4.5 million mt compared to the same quarter of the previous year, as the sector is reviewing capital investment plans amid the pandemic. Demand from the manufacturing sector is expected to decrease by 1.9 percent year on year to 6.2 million mt due to the completion of inventory replenishment in the supply chain. As regards the machinery sector, demand is anticipated to decline 2.9 percent year on year to 1.09 million mt.