Liu Jian, president of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), has stated that Chinese domestic annual steel demand is expected to remain above 800 million mt during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-30), despite an overall anticipated downward trend in demand over the next decade.
Speaking at the 15th China International Steel Congress held in Shanghai on September 20, Mr. Liu reviewed the development of China's steel industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and outlined the industry's roadmap and key targets for the 15th Five-Year Plan period.
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China cut its steel output by more than 100 million mt cumulatively and rolled out an industry self-discipline work plan aimed at curbing "involution-style" cutthroat competition. In addition, the country pushed forward mergers and reorganizations among steelmakers. The concentration ratio of China's ten largest steelmakers is expected to reach 43.1 percent in 2025, up 4.2 percentage points compared to 2020.
Chinese steel demand expected to trend down over next decade
"Over the next decade, domestic steel demand will fluctuate downward, remaining above 800 million mt during the 15th Five-Year Plan period and most likely falling below 800 million mt by 2035," Liu said.
Against this backdrop, China's steel industry will focus on controlling capacity expansion, increasing industrial concentration and strengthening resource security. By 2030, the concentration ratio of the country's ten largest steelmakers is targeted to reach 50 percent, while electric arc furnace-based steel production is expected to account for 20 percent of total steel output. In addition, the contribution rate of domestic iron ore resources is targeted to reach 26 percent and the share of overseas Chinese equity mines is expected to rise to 13 percent.
Global steelmaking capacity to increase by 165 million mt in 2025-27
Regarding the global steel industry, Liu highlighted mounting pressure from capacity growth, weak economic recovery, high decarbonization costs and increasing trade barriers. According to CISA data, an additional 165 million mt of steelmaking capacity is expected to be added globally between 2025 and 2027, representing an increase of 6.7 percent and potentially intensifying competition in the global steel market.
Meanwhile, CISA stated that direct and indirect steel exports account for around 40 percent of global steel production. Liu noted that Chinese steel products faced 111 initial trade remedy investigations between 2020 and the first half of 2026.
Referring to the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), Liu said that the EU's carbon emission default values are significantly higher than China's actual levels. According to CISA's estimates, by 2028 the cost of China's downstream steel exports to the EU could increase by seven percent, resulting in an additional cost of €1.42 billion.
Liu also called for greater international cooperation in low-carbon governance, raw material supply chains and carbon accounting standards, while opposing increasing trade protectionism.
