According to statistics issued by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, China’s apparent crude steel consumption fell by 20 percent in 2025 compared to 2020.
According to Xu Xiangchun, director of market Intelligence at Mysteel, at the Asia Steel Forum held at Beijing on July 16, China’s apparent rebar consumption declined by 30 percent and its apparent wire rod consumption decreased by 20 percent during China’s 14th Five-Year Plan period.
Per re-evaluation of changes in China’s steel demand during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, steel demand from building construction totaled approximately 192.6 million mt in 2025, decreasing by 144.84 million mt or 43 percent compared to 2020.
However, steel demand from the machinery, automotive and shipbuilding industries indicated rises of six percent, 41 percent and 90 percent in the given period, which offset the big declines in rebar and wire rod demand.
Furthermore, Mr. Xu noted that China’s finished steel demand declined by 7.0 percent during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, or by 80 million mt, compared to the 200 million mt decline in steel demand before the revision. The changes in crude steel consumption (revised) stood at -3.0 percent in 2021, -4.2 percent in 2022, 1.5 percent in 2023, -1.0 percent in 2024, and -0.3 percent in 2025.
As for the steel demand outlook for the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the correction in the construction industry may be limited, following the previous big decline in the 14th Five-Year Plan period, or may not be as significant as that in 2021-25 as the adjustment in the real estate industry has been over-corrected. The steel consumption of the real estate industry is likely to fall by a further 30-40 million mt during the 2026-30 period.
However, steel demand from infrastructure may remain largely stable: for instance, the construction of the national water network, the new-type power grid, the computing power network, the next-generation communication network, the urban underground pipeline network and logistics network will play a key role in stimulating the demand for steel.
At the same time, steel demand from manufacturing may grow further, while steel consumption for exports of mechanical and electrical products might amount to 20-30 million mt.
Moreover, annual steel structure output amounted to around 100 million mt in 2025, while it will stand at around 150 million mt in 2030.
It is expected that China’s average steel demand in the 15th Five-Year Plan period is expected to stand at around 980-1,030 million mt amid the slower contraction in the construction industry.
