In the financial year 2016-17, Australia’s earnings from resource and energy exports are forecast to reach $163 billion, with a year-on-year increase of three percent, while the value of Australia’s iron ore exports is forecast to total $48.85 billion in FY 2016-17, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.6 percent, according to a report by the Australian Government Department of Industry and Science.
The iron ore price averaged $48/mt in the first six months of 2016, down 13 percent year on year. Despite the large movements in prices, the market fundamentals are broadly unchanged - demand growth is slow and the market remains well-supplied. With the expectation of weak growth in consumption and stronger growth in supply, prices are forecast to moderate over the remainder of 2016. For the year as a whole, the iron ore price is forecast to decline by 11 percent to average $45/mt. In 2017, iron ore prices are expected to recover more slowly than previously forecast. The average iron ore price is forecast to be $45/mt in 2017, representing no change from 2016.
According to the report, in 2017 exports of Australian iron ore are forecast to grow to 874 million mt.