US hot rolled coil (HRC) prices continued their recent upward trend this week, as market insiders predict that supply options will remain limited in the near term due to the impact of ongoing Section 232 steel tariffs on US supply chains. Meanwhile, other flat steel products dipped amid limited demand expectations as the third quarter of 2025 approaches.
According to flat steel insiders, the current 50 percent tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, effective June 4, will continue to reduce HRC supply availability. They added that the ongoing tariff situation makes it easier for domestic mills to raise prices as there is less competition from imports.
The previous 25 percent tariffs, which have now doubled to 50 percent, allowed many low-priced foreign suppliers to enter the US market. Consequently, mills were reluctant to raise prices in order to maintain their market share.
This week’s SteelOrbis spot HRC price average is assessed in the $870-$900/nt ($959-$992/mt) range, or an average of $885/nt, up from the $860-$880/nt ($948-$970/mt) range, or an average of $870/nt, reported one week earlier. Although HRC prices increased again, SteelOrbis’s weekly pricing data shows that spot pricing remains 6.8 percent lower than the $950/nt ($1,047/mt) 2025 HRC spot price high reported for the week of March 17, just one week after US President Trump’s initial announcement of new 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.
On the mill side, the key US steel manufacturer Nucor increased its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for HRC by $10/nt to $900/nt ($992/mt) this week, marking the second consecutive week of price hikes. The CRU HRC price increased by $31/nt, reaching $878/nt ($968/mt) or $43.90/cwt.
“Tariffs have effectively established an artificial pricing floor for flat steel markets," commented one SteelOrbis market insider. "The alternative for U.S. buyers is to purchase steel with a 50 percent tariff.”
Another insider said, “The current price situation can be blamed on TINA (there is no alternative) with regard to ongoing tariffs.”
While prices for flat-rolled coils have continued to rise for a third week, some insiders are reporting growing resistance to the trend.
Another insider commented, “The current price situation can be blamed on TINA (there is no alternative),” he said with regard to ongoing tariffs.
And while prices for flat rolled coils continue to advance for now going on a third week, some insiders are starting to report a growing resistance to the developing trend.
“We’re starting to see a lot of buyer resistance in this zip code (my market area),” commented one Midwest-based flat steel trader. “People are starting to fight the higher prices,” he continued. “Business is just not that good,” he added. “We’re seeing new capacity come online, and a general negativity seems to be spreading in the marketplace. However, if we stagger into August and September at these basic levels, things could then be a lot more clear then with interest rates, business conditions, along with leaner inventories. We see a path to HRC pricing likely in the low 50s ($50/cwt., or $1,000/nt or $1,102/mt) as very likely.”
In other flat steel markets, traders said that the expectation of continued low levels of US manufacturing activity in the third quarter of 2025 is contributing to reduced demand for new cold rolled coil (CRC) supply. This expectation is occurring even as existing high levels of pre-tariff inventory continue to slowly be drawn down. On average, spot CRC is reported at $1,020/nt ($1,124/mt) or $51.00/cwt., down from an average of $1,060/nt ($1,168/mt) or $53.00/cwt. one week ago. Due to higher HRC pricing and lower CRC weekly values, the key weekly price spread between the two steel products is $135/nt ($149/mt), down from $190/nt ($209/mt) one week ago.
In the coated finished steel marketplace, the spot HDG base product price is assessed at $1,010/nt ($1,113/mt), or an average of $50.50/cwt. This is down from the previously reported range of $48-$55/cwt., or an average of $1,030/nt ($1,135/mt) or $51.50/cwt. one week ago.