Following a brief decline a week earlier, US flat steel prices were reported up this week as buyers sought to lock in new limited supply arrangements ahead of announcements from the US Trump administration concerning the application of new reciprocating tariffs, market insiders told SteelOrbis.
And while current steel and aluminum tariffs set March 12 remain at 25 percent, new reciprocal tariffs now applied by the Trump administration on all nations now set at a minimum 10 percent, do not apply to steel imports. While some importers reported they were sidelined, holding off on trade, unsure whether new reciprocal tariffs would apply to steel, the opposite appears to have occurred in the domestic steel market.
“We’ve seen some panic buying recently as a result of tariffs,” one Texas-based service center contact told SteelOrbis. “And, while the floor of the market has been raised, we think the recent buying activity is over and pricing should settle down.”
As more clarity is now available concerning new and existing tariffs, scrap market insiders expect April supply negotiations that start in earnest late this week into next week, could yield significantly lower prices versus previous March settles.
“I am not hearing anything new from the mills regarding April pricing as it’s been really quiet,” said one Midwest scrap insider. “I don’t think recent calls for $20-30/gt declines for April scrap apply much anymore. I think it will be lower than that as we’re seeing a limited amount of buying because finished steel is not moving.”
“There still seems to be a lot of uncertainty out there with regard to tariffs, so bigger drops could be in store,” said another Midwest scrap insider.
Finished steel contacts told SteelOrbis mills were actively speculating prices were set for a short-term decline, therefore, they began canceling unfilled March scrap deliveries, with the hope that their April replacement cost of scrap would be much lower. Last reports from market insiders called for April scrap down $20-30/gt ($20-30/mt) from March pricing levels in the US Midwest. April shredded scrap in Texas was called sideways as late as midweek.
In weekly flat steel spot markets, the SteelOrbis weekly spot average for hot rolled coils (HRC) rose $35/nt ($39/mt) to on average $935/nt ($1,031/mt), or $46.75/cwt., up from $900/nt ($992/mt), or $45.00/cwt., a week prior. HRC prices peaked two weeks ago at $950/nt ($1,047/mt), or $47.50/cwt., and since the beginning of 2025, HRC prices have increased by 24.84 percent, interestingly, against a backdrop of 25 percent steel import tariffs. Nucor CSP prices were stable this week at $935/nt ($1,031/mt).
Flat steel market insiders said recently domestic flat steel price increases were making imports more competitive, even given recent 25 percent tariffs levied by the Trump administration March 12 as well as adding current anti-dumping rates from key HRC exporting countries.
Though trade was non-existent because of the extended observance of the Eid holiday, export HRC from Turkey on an FOB port basis is last assessed at $575/mt. Since the beginning of 2025, Turkish HRC prices on an FOB port export basis have increased a more conservative 8.4 percent. FOB port export offers from Egypt are last heard at $565-570/mt, market insiders told SteelOrbis.
In the cold rolled markets, spot CRC is assessed $25/nt higher in limited trade on the week at $1,175/nt ($1,295/mt), or $58.75/cwt., up from $1,150/nt ($1,268/mt), or $57.50/cwt., one week earlier. At present, the current key trading spread between HRC and CRC fell by $10/nt to $240/nt ($265/mt), off from $250/nt ($276/mt), or $12.50.cwt., one week earlier.
Following steady pricing reported a week earlier, spot HDG is assessed $35/nt higher at $1,135/nt ($1,251/mt), up from $1,100/nt ($1,213/mt), or $55.00/cwt., seven days ago. Insiders said trading has improved since final determinations were released regarding several US Commerce Department investigations into anti-dumping allegations which were expected in early April.