US flat steel pricing continued to advance this week, though current price levels for hot-rolled coils (HRC) could be nearing a peak, insiders told SteelOrbis. Considering recent price increases from mills, insiders said current price levels could make imports increasingly more attractive, even given recent 25 percent tariffs levied by the Trump administration March 12 as well as adding current countervailing duty rates from key HRC exporting countries.
Hints that prices could be peaking for HRC might be found in that for a second straight week, steelmaker Nucor announced its price for HRC would rise by just $15/nt ($17/mt) to $930/nt ($1,025/mt), or $46.50/cwt., following several prior consecutive weekly price increases of $30-40/nt.
In weekly flat steel spot markets, the SteelOrbis weekly spot average for hot rolled coils (HRC) continued higher, rising a more modest $25/nt ($28/mt) to to $950/nt ($1,047/mt), or $47.50/cwt., up from $900-$950/nt ($992-1,047/mt), or $45.00-47.50/cwt., seven days earlier. The week prior, average spot HRC pricing was up $45/nt ($50/mt), or $2.25/cwt.
More data suggesting HRC prices could be near a peak may be found in that since the week of January 20, 2025, when Trump took office promising renewed import tariffs, HRC prices have increased on average more than 35 percent, a full 10 percent above the expected price increase with tariffs alone, SteelOrbis data shows.
Some insiders predict mill offers might be steady to lower near term.
“I am picking up a sense of prices having little more room to run higher, and perhaps easing,” said a Mid-Atlantic based steel market insider. “It seems to be a buyer’s strike: prices are so darn high that if we pay it, we will lose money when we sell our manufactured goods. So, we would rather shut down than pay.”
He added, “These are just hints, not solid, but if it really is happening this quickly, then it does not bode well for upside pricing.”
“Here’s the math,” he added. “Other than Canada and Mexico, the tariff is 25% under Section 232. If global (HRC) prices are $600/mt (or less), then a 25% tariff is $150, for a total of $750. If domestic is $1,050, buyers will pay the tariff and buy imports.”
On the raw materials front, since March scrap rose $25-$30/gt ($25-30/mt), the expectation for April scrap pricing has been seen sideways to down as supplies from sub-collectors are reported to be increasing, scrap insiders told SteelOrbis.
In other flat steel markets, CRC is assessed in limited trade up on average $10/nt ($11/mt) to $1,160/nt ($1,279/mt), or $58.00/cwt., up from $1,150/nt ($1,268/mt), or $57.50/cwt., seven days ago. At present, the current key trading spread between HRC and CRC is assessed at $210/nt ($239/mt), off from $225/nt ($248/mt), or $11.25/cwt., a week earlier.
Following a previous slight weekly decline, spot HDG was reported steady in limited activity this week at $1,100-$1,200/nt ($1,213-1,323/mt), or $55.00-60.00/cwt., though off from an average $1,160/nt ($1,279/mt) or $58.00/cwt., two weeks earlier. Trade remains limited, insiders say, pending the outcome of potential trade actions on anti-dumping investigations by the US Commerce Department expected in early April.