Grupo Celsa gives long products outlook
At the recent 53rd IREPAS Meeting in Amsterdam, Grupo Celsa gave their prediction for world and North American (Canada, Mexico, and US) long products consumption. Overall, they say world long products consumption will continue to increase 4.8 percent in 2005 to 435 million metric tons (mmt), compared to the 8.6 percent increase to 415 mmt seen in 2004. By product, those numbers break down as follows:Product 2004 2005 est. Merchant bars 87 (21) 91 (21) Sections 58 (14) 59 (13) Wire rod 107 (26) 112 (26) Rebar 162 (39) 173 (40)All figures are presented in million metric tons with the percentage of the total in parenthesis. Overall consumption of rebars is estimated to increase to 175 mmt in 2005 to 196 mmt through 2009. That is a 55 percent and 59 percent increase from 1992 respectively. Rebar consumption by global region breaks down as follows:
Region 2005 est. 2009 est. CIS 2% 2% E and SE Asia 61% 63% Europe 12% 11% North America 7% 7% ROW 18% 17%Grupo Celsa reports that North American apparent rebar consumption is set to decline by an annual average of 0.8 percent in 2005 and 2006 due to a 2.4 percent per year decline in the United States. They also believe import pressures will continue to mount and that net import volumes will reach 752000 metric tons, a year-on-year increase of 61 percent for the second half of 2005. Import pressures will continue through 2006 as countries supplying imports to the US bring new capacities online. They further cite a declining growth rate in the construction industry as the key factor in weak rebar demand, but add that natural disasters could reinvigorate consumption.