US domestic rebar and wire rod prices remained flat for a second consecutive week due to uncertainty surrounding the upcoming reciprocal tariffs on steel imports from the US slated to go into effect as part of new Trump administration trade policy on April 2.
In the weekly rebar spot markets, domestic supply on an FOB mill basis is assessed with most transactions noted at $40.00-41.50/cwt., ($800-830/nt or $882-915/mt), on average $40.75/cwt., ($815/nt or $898/mt), unchanged from seven days ago.
While spot prices were stable as markets await more certainty over tariffs, insiders said the rebar price trend is “up slightly.” Even as the market remained unchanged, domestic rebar orders have slowed, they said, with some market participants afraid another bump up in price (this week) could make imports more competitive.
“Domestic mills… are so afraid of imported product that they don’t want to take the risk, so they’re keeping prices flat,” another insider told SteelOrbis.
Following recent actions by the Trump administration to levy 25 percent import tariffs on steel and aluminum on the US’ two largest trading partners, Canada and Mexico on March 12, market insiders said many players remain sidelined, while others remain extremely busy adjusting logistics and supply chain operations to accommodate current and future tariff arrangements should they remain in place at the beginning of the second quarter.
Some insiders expect Trump could make further concessions on Canada and Mexico steel trade so as to not take away from work he has already completed with the current USMCA trade agreement he negotiated during his first term.
And while another round of March price increases from US mills for wire rod and structural products like Merchant Bar Quality (MBQ), were announced late this past week, it remained unclear at press time whether those increases would be fully accepted by the market.
“Mills are going to have to recoup some of the increased price of March scrap,” quipped one Midwest market insider. “We could potentially see a price increase of about $30/ton ($33/mt) for rebar within the next week.”
March shredded scrap in Chicago, often a good indicator for direction in rebar market pricing, settled up $25/gt ($25/mt) to $455-460/gt ($462-467/mt).
On the domestic mill side, late last week, Nucor, CMC, and Optimus Steel announced additional $50/ton ($55/mt) or $2.50/cwt., increases for domestic wire rod pricing, while MBQ was increased by $40/nt ($44/mt), or $2.00/cwt. Insiders told SteelOrbis price increases for wire rod might not be fully accepted by the market fully until potentially next month, depending on the outcome of second quarter tariffs. However, according to another market insider, rebar might not be affected by this price announcement because “the demand is not so great and the gap between the import and domestic prices is too big now.”
“Market uncertainty over tariffs stops the contractors so they are not starting projects like they should,” added another rebar market insider, commenting on this week’s flat pricing.
In the domestic wire rod market, most transactions were reported this week at $43.00-44.00/cwt ($860-880/nt or $948-970/mt), or an average of $43.50/cwt ($870/nt or $959/mt), unchanged from seven days ago.
Insiders said while the current market pricing finished flat again this week, spot markets could likely see at least one more increase once the recent price announcements are at least partially accepted by the market, and the reciprocal tariffs become official.