The World Steel Association (worldsteel) has released an update of its Short Range Outlook for 2023 and 2024, forecasting that steel demand will grow by 1.8 percent in 2023 to 1.81 billion mt, while in 2024 steel demand is forecast to increase by 1.9 percent, totaling 1.85 billion mt. In the previous forecast, steel demand had been expected to increase by 2.3 percent in 2023 and by 1.7 percent in 2024.
Worldsteel noted that steel demand continues to be impacted by high inflation and interest rates, while the global economic outlook has continued to worsen under the influence of monetary tightening that has hurt consumption and investment alike. However, inflation has started to moderate in 2023 thanks to the slowing economy, which may allow the ending of the monetary tightening cycles in 2024.
In its regional analysis, worldsteel said China’s steel demand in 2023 will increase by two percent supported by infrastructure investments and stabilization in the property sector, while the outlook for 2024 is uncertain. The real estate market and exports will continue to exert negative pressure on steel demand, which may contract in the absence of additional government support measures. If the government introduces additional measures to support the economy, steel demand in 2024 may sustain the level of 2023.
Meanwhile, after falling by 6.4 percent in 2022, steel demand in developed economies is expected to contract by 1.8 percent in 2023, while in 2024 steel demand will grow by 2.8 percent. Steel demand dynamics in emerging and developing economies continue to diverge. After falling by 0.6 percent in 2022, steel demand in emerging and developing economies excluding China will show growth of 4.1 percent in 2023 and 4.8 percent in 2024, worldsteel predicted.