Recycled steel is increasingly being recognized as a strategic resource rather than simply a secondary raw material, according to Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) Ferrous Division President Shane Mellor. Speaking at the division's latest meeting in Gothenburg, Sweden, Mellor said the global steel industry is entering a period in which recycled steel will play a central role in both decarbonization and long-term competitiveness.
According to Mellor, the first half of 2026 highlighted the vulnerability of global ferrous markets to geopolitical instability, energy supply disruptions, freight volatility, protectionist policies and shifting trade flows. These factors have significantly influenced steel trade patterns and market sentiment worldwide.
Despite these challenges, Mellor emphasized that recycled steel is increasingly being viewed as a key component of genuine green steel production. He stated that recyclers will evolve from raw material suppliers into strategic partners supporting the steel industry’s transformation. “The steel industry of the future will not only depend on recycled steel but will increasingly be shaped by it,” Mellor said.
Infrastructure demand trends creating new opportunities
During a session titled “Recycled Steel: The Strategic Driver of the 2050 Steel Industry?”, keynote speaker and applied futurist Tom Cheesewright examined several long-term trends expected to influence steel markets over the coming decades.
Cheesewright noted that infrastructure demand is becoming increasingly influenced by demographic developments. Countries with aging or declining populations are focusing on replacing and modernizing existing infrastructure, while rapidly growing economies continue to require large-scale new construction projects. India was highlighted as a particularly important market due to its ambitious infrastructure development plans. According to Cheesewright, the country is seeking to expand infrastructure while avoiding reliance on outdated technologies, creating opportunities for modern steel production and recycling solutions.
Automotive sector may generate less scrap in the future
The automotive industry is also undergoing structural changes that could influence future scrap availability. Cheesewright pointed out that vehicles are remaining in service longer than previously anticipated, potentially reducing the number of new vehicles entering the market and slowing the generation of end-of-life scrap.
At the same time, rising quality requirements across the automotive industry are expected to increase the complexity of steel recycling processes. However, Cheesewright indicated that he does not expect a significant shift away from steel toward aluminum in vehicle manufacturing. The evolving automotive landscape could therefore reduce the sector's contribution to recycled steel feedstock while increasing the importance of advanced processing technologies capable of meeting stricter quality specifications.
Artificial intelligence transforming steelmaking and recycling
Artificial intelligence emerged as one of the dominant themes during the discussion. Cheesewright highlighted the growing use of AI across the steel industry, citing ArcelorMittal as an example of a company applying advanced digital technologies throughout its operations.
According to Cheesewright, AI has significantly accelerated the development and commercialization of new steel grades, reducing development timelines to approximately one-fifth of previous levels. The technology is also helping steelmakers optimize scrap purchasing strategies and increase the utilization of lower-quality recycled materials. These developments could have important implications for the recycling sector. AI-driven improvements in material analysis, sorting and quality assessment may enable greater use of lower-grade scrap while maintaining product quality standards.
BIR Past President Tom Bird suggested that AI could eventually help bridge the gap between high-quality and lower-quality scrap assessment, unlocking additional recycling potential. Other industry participants agreed that such developments are increasingly likely as digital technologies mature.
Recyclers expected to play a larger strategic role
Responding to the broader discussion, Mellor noted that market participants often focus on short-term issues such as freight costs, price volatility and trade flows. However, he argued that the deeper structural changes currently underway are likely to redefine the steel industry over the next 25 years.
Industry representatives also discussed how technology is being applied in different regions. In India, for example, digital tools and AI are primarily being used to improve productivity and product quality rather than replace labor, an approach that is increasingly being adopted within the recycling industry.
While emerging trends such as car-sharing services could reduce future steel demand in certain applications, participants agreed that these shifts are also likely to create new opportunities across the value chain.