The World Steel Association (worldsteel) forecasts that global apparent steel use will increase by 10.7 percent to 1.24 billion mt in 2010 after contracting by 6.7 percent in 2009, according to its short range outlook (SRO) for 2010 and 2011, published on April 20. This represents an improved figure over the autumn 2009 forecast for both 2009 and 2010. With these projections, world steel demand in 2010 will exceed the pre-crisis levels of 2007. In 2011, it is forecast that world steel demand will grow by 5.3 percent to reach a historical high of 1.31 billion mt. According to the report, the resilience of the emerging economies, especially
China, has been the critical factor enabling the earlier-than-expected recovery of world steel demand.
Commenting, worldsteel economics committee chairman Daniel Novegil said, "The general picture is an improvement on the forecast we issued in October last year. The world steel industry now seems firmly set on a path to recovery. The emerging economies, who in total maintained positive growth through the crisis, will continue to show strong growth, driving world steel demand in the future, however the current recovery in the major developed economies is slower and the projected steel demand for them in 2011 is well below the 2007 level."
"The recovery is not only earlier but also stronger than expected. It was driven in large part by government stimulus packages and recent inventory restocking. The real concern will be how post-crisis macroeconomic policies deal with fiscal balancing and inflationary pressures." Mr. Novegil concluded.
China's apparent steel use in 2010 is expected to increase by 6.7 percent to 579 million mt after the impressive increase of 24.8 percent in 2009. The pace of economic growth and steel production seen in the first quarter of 2010 suggests that apparent steel use could be even higher than this forecast. In 2011, the growth rate will slow to 2.8 percent, which will bring
China's apparent steel use to 595 million mt. In 2011,
China will account for 45.5 percent of world apparent steel use, compared to 48.4 percent in 2009.