At a cabinet meeting this week, President Trump told the NAFTA negotiations team, including US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer “not to do the deal” unless “there was a significant breakthrough in talks.” He noted that the talks have stalled and that he is no longer in a hurry to overhaul the trilateral agreement. Canada is currently out of the trade talks and, despite progress with negotiations with the southern neighbor, significant differences remain with Mexico.
Some press outlets reported earlier this week on the US “nearing a deal with Mexico” on an updated NAFTA. Mexico and the US officials have reportedly largely agreed to new rules on auto trade while the US is easing on the demand for an automatic five-year termination/renewal process of NAFTA, but the lack of involvement by Canadian counterparts could result in an unraveling of much work accomplished bilaterally once Canada returns to the negotiating table.
Politically, the timelines for Mexico and the US are driven by getting a deal done before the entry of the new Mexican president in late 2018 and US midterm elections. Canada has different interests and is reportedly not as interested in negotiating away beneficial NAFTA terms given their inclusion in the US 25 percent import tariff on steel (and 10 percent tariff on aluminum).
The trilateral agreement, once signed by the three countries, would still need to go through a lengthy process of review by the US International Trade Commission and a vote by Congress which would take it into Q1 2019 at the earliest.