During the panel session of the SteelOrbis Spring 2022 Conference & 86th IREPAS Meeting held in Istanbul on May 29-31, Murat Cebecioğlu from Turkish steel producer ICDAS, and chairman of IREPAS, mentioned two major problems facing the long steel market, mainly the war in Ukraine and China’s zero-covid policy, adding that the problem in China will probably be resolved quicker than the war in Ukraine, giving breathing space for all. He said that the war had shifted all fundamentals: the supply-demand balance has been broken, supply chains disrupted, prices have increased, there was panic buying in the EU and some countries bought more than they needed.
Talking about certain countries in particular, Mr. Cebecioğlu said that peace talks are in progress in Yemen, one of the top three export markets for Turkey. If they bring results, demand will pick up in this market, while in the Philippines, after the formation of the new cabinet, things are expected to be much better. Looking at the Middle East, the UAE produces more than it consumes, so it exports to many countries. In the GCC region, countries that used to be importers have now become exporters, such as Oman which is exporting to the EU in good quantities. When it comes to Turkey, he underlined that it exports to many countries and the war “gave some small chance to Turkey as it is the only alternative” in the absence of Russia and Ukraine. Although exports to Southeast Asia have not been possible for Turkey this year because of China’s presence there, Turkey got the opportunity to replace the supply from Ukraine and Russia, though it was also negatively affected itself, since these two countries are major suppliers. He also pointed out that, with the EU redistributing quotas of Russia and Belarus to other countries, Turkey’s volumes for the EU have increased.
Commenting on whether Turkey is becoming less competitive in the face of Section 232 measures being replaced with quotas for the EU, the UK and Japan, the IREPAS chairman explained that the US has always been a good market for Turkey, though it had not been possible to sell to this market for the last couple of months as prices were so high at around $900/mt, “but today it is quite possible and deals have already been made with the US. These countries are not an obstacle for us. Selling to the US is always about pricing,” he added. As for the current situation regarding Turkey’s long steel exports, Cebecioğlu said that, as the local markets slowed down in most countries, along with increasing prices, Turkish suppliers have a hard time foreseeing the future. He explained that Israel, one of top three export markets for Turkish long products, has not bought anything for more than a month or so, but now they are coming back to the market, the same as Yemen. “We are in the clear, I think. In the coming weeks, things will be alright,” he affirmed.
Regarding freight rates and shipping costs, the producers committee chairman indicated that freight rates have more than doubled and vessels are waiting a minimum of three to four weeks at ports, resulting in “a huge effect on the steel trade using bulk vessels. When you look at the Baltic Dry Index, it seems more or less the same as last year but China’s Covid restrictions have blocked many ships out of business, creating a big problem, and I don’t know how soon this can be resolved,” he added.
