During the mid-year conference of Mysteel held on July 17, Wang Jianhua, chief steel analyst of Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co., Ltd., delivered a keynote speech titled Decline First, Then Rise, Balancing Offense and Defense - Semi-Annual Review and Outlook of China's Steel Market.
In the January-June period this year, China’s steel industry presented obvious structural divergence, characterized by raw materials having a better performance than finished steel, quality and special steels outperforming general-grade steel, flat products performing better than longs, and steel pipes witnessing the biggest declines.
Mr. Wang said that the rapid implementation of RMB 800 billion ($118 billion) in new policy-based financial instruments may help boost the demand for commodities, which will result in the rebounding trend in steel prices in the second half of the year.
Meanwhile, for the second half of the year, the supply-demand situation in the steel market is expected to improve. Accordingly, steel prices might see a stabilization and a rebound. The average price of finished steel is anticipated to be slightly higher than that for the first six months this year.
In the July-December period, coking coal and coke will continue their destocking process, while shipments of iron ore will increase, though the year-on-year growth may slow down. However, crude oil prices may edge up and trend at high levels, which would boost commodities prices.
For the whole year of 2026, the Chinese economic development will seek to progress while maintaining stability. Throughout the whole world, supply of steel will be strong, while demand will remain relatively slack, which will result in oversupply and exert a negative impact on steel prices.
It is expected that supply constraints in China will strengthen in the second half of the year amid policy constraints, enterprise self-discipline and production control, and market pressure to make steelmakers reduce production outputs, which will be helpful for destocking.
In the rest six months this year, China’s economy will likely rebound, with improvement being seen in liquidity, which will positively affect buyers’ stock replenishments. Under neutral expectations, the comprehensive average price of steel in China in 2026 may indicate a slight rise of 1.7 percent, Mr Wang predicted.