The balance between supply and demand in the global long steel products market continues to deteriorate, further exacerbated by the recent decision by the Trump administration to raise import tariffs on steel products to 50 percent. The move, introduced without prior notice, took many exporters by surprise and has added a new layer of instability. These newly imposed trade barriers - protective for a few but punitive for many - are forcing market participants to reassess their commercial strategies toward the US market.
In the meantime, buyers have adopted a wait-and-see stance, amid speculation that countries such as Mexico and Canada may seek partial or full exemptions from the measure. At the same time, discussions among suppliers, traders, and end-users have intensified over who will absorb the additional cost for shipments already en route or arriving at US ports.
The most acute difficulties are being felt by US importers, many of whom are now facing substantial losses or are being forced to cancel pending shipments. While domestic demand in the US remains stable, local long steel prices are starting to rise under the protective umbrella of the new duties. However, these prices are still not high enough to justify new import bookings. In addition, persistently high interest rates continue to weigh on investment and are slowing down construction activity. As it stands, only a few domestic producers are truly benefiting from the current situation.
Globally, competition from China and Southeast Asia has become increasingly difficult to match. Beijing's economic stimulus efforts have failed to deliver the expected results, and long steel exports from the region remain strong, putting pressure on other Asian exporters. In Europe, cheap imported material from Asia - further encouraged by the weak US dollar - is weighing on local producers, who are also dealing with rising energy costs. Unless demand picks up after the summer break, production cuts across the region cannot be ruled out.
Amid ongoing volatility and uncertainty, the long steel market remains structurally weak. Hopes for a reduction in interest rates - both in the US and in Turkey - represent the only glimmer of optimism, though concrete signs of relief have yet to materialize. For now, July and August are expected to be transitional months, with a potential market recovery pushed back to the post-summer period.