According to the latest report issued by IREPAS, the global association for longs exporters and producers, the global long steel products market continues to face weak demand and high supply pressure, with buyers maintaining a cautious stance and limiting purchases to short-term needs amid structural and seasonal factors and ongoing uncertainty across currencies, commodities and trade policy.
Despite a notable decline in Chinese steel production with 2025 output down to 960 million mt, below one billion mt for the first time since 2019, supply-side pressure remains significant due to the surge in exports to a record 119 million mt.
Rising geopolitical tensions continue to increase uncertainty for both mills and traders. This situation is contributing to buyers’ wait-and-see approach on the demand side, while input costs, especially scrap, remain more supported than finished steel products due to seasonal supply tightness.
Demand side remains weak
Demand in the EU remains weak with seasonal factors, uncertainties regarding quotas and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism discouraging buyers from making larger commitments. Import volumes have slowed down, with only limited quotas fully used on January 1, reflecting concerns among importers and traders.
In the US, expectations for commercial construction in 2026 have weakened, while residential construction also remains under pressure amid high inventories and interest rates. Imports face strong competition from domestic products supported by 50 percent import duty, as well as antidumping and countervailing duties on most commodities.
Market outlook remains tough despite seasonal factors
Meanwhile, IREPAS noted that competition remains high amid widespread trade measures. While seasonal factors provide some improvement in outlook, market conditions remain challenging with ongoing trade restrictions. IREPAS reports cautious optimism for 2026.
