US import rebar and wire rod prices continued a recent trend of mostly steady on a week-over-week basis amid thin spot trade, as market participants report growing concerns that current limited levels of domestic and international demand might be hard-pressed to support further upward price movement, market insiders told SteelOrbis.
Reports of continued domestic and international market uncertainty come at a time when US scrap prices continue to rally -the result of reduced US inventory levels at both mills and suppliers and ongoing domestic weather-related scrap delivery concerns. Higher scrap prices, insiders contend, continue to exert upward pressure on US mills’ steel production costs.
As a result, several key US mills -among them, Charlotte, North Carolina-based Nucor- announced posted rebar prices would rise by $30/nt ($1.50/cwt.) during both December and January. Following Nucor’s lead, other US mills announced their own price increases.
“February price increases are still up in the air,” admitted one Midwest-based market insider as monthly steel scrap settlement prices were announced by SteelOrbis, finding February scrap prices had advanced another $20-30/gt from already-higher January levels.
Insiders said many are weighing the likelihood that further US scrap-inspired price increases might not occur soon or might be more limited from US domestic mills, especially since additional upward movement in domestic pricing could further encourage the entry of additional steel imports over the next several months, crimping recent hard-earned growth to domestic steel mill market share, they said.
On the US Gulf Coast, import rebar on a loaded truck basis is reported steady at $44.00-45/cwt, following earlier $1.00/cwt or $20/nt weekly declines from recent SteelOrbis weekly estimates amid reports of improved inventory. Insiders said delivery to US East Coast ports will add an additional $20/ton to $45.00-46/cwt., ($900-920/nt or $992-1,014/mt), also steady on the week.
“Some importers are increasingly worried about ongoing levels of US demand,” added the Midwest-based long steel insider to SteelOrbis. “Given continued lackluster demand from the US construction sector, some are concerned that there may soon be too much supply chasing limited market, especially once additional US productive capacity comes on line later this year.” He continued. “I tend to be more optimistic than many, and don’t see much downside in the US market over the next six months as the US economy continues to grow despite claims by many that inflation would increase and stunt growth.”
Despite still mixed feelings about the effects of tariffs on longer-term US growth, data suggests steel demand could remain limited nearer term.
According to a recent report from the Dodge Construction Network, the Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) -which measures US construction activity and planning- declined 6.3 percent in January to 272.7 (2000=100) from a downward-revised December reading of 291. Over the month, commercial planning fell 7.2 percent and institutional planning momentum slumped 4.4 percent, the report said. And while monthly numbers were down, year-over-year comparisons were more encouraging, with the DMI index up 29% when compared with January 2025 levels, while the commercial segment was up 26 percent -up 17 percent when data centers are removed- and the institutional segment increased 34 percent over the same period.
“Planning momentum cooled in January across most commercial and institutional sectors,” said Associate Director of Forecasting at Dodge Construction Network, Sarah Martin. “Data center projects continue to lead the way, but after elevated activity in late 2025, most nonresidential sectors are now easing into a more sustainable growth pattern.”
Despite uncertainty regarding future steel demand and the outlook for short-term price levels, reports continue to SteelOrbis that more imports from Asia appear poised to penetrate US markets in March and April, at least on a limited extent. And while claims about increased imports continue, a clear consensus remains elusive.
“Imports remain constrained. Section 232 tariffs, expanded anti-dumping and countervailing duties, and the effective closure of Mexico, North Africa, and Vietnam have significantly reduced available offshore supply,” remarked one US Gulf Coast-based steel importer. “South Korea remains the primary import source, but volumes are insufficient to meaningfully pressure domestic pricing,” he added. “Even with selective new supply from Hybar and other mill ramp ups later in the year, net availability remains balanced to tight.”
In the import wire rod market, prices were steady to slightly higher than week-ago levels, with wire rod mesh import pricing on a DDP loaded truck basis called steady at $43.50-44.50/cwt., ($870-890/nt or $959-981/mt), while wire rod mesh and rebar import pricing on a CFR Free-Out (FO) US Gulf basis rose $5/nt to $585-595/mt. Insiders said a continuation of limited demand from Asian markets and steadily increasing Chinese steel exports continues to limit sizable advances in international long steel price levels.
“Wire rod prices [domestic] are well supported by costs and disciplined supply,” the Gulf Coast importer said. “Import competition may increase later in 2026, but near term conditions favor stability.”