Steel imports into the European Union in Q1 2011 from non-EU countries have risen by around 43 percent compared with the same period of 2010, according to the third quarter 2011 report of the ‘Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2011-2012' released by the European Confederation of Iron and Steel Industries (EUROFER). Customs figures for steel trade show that the average import volume in the first quarter of this year amounted to almost 2.6 million mt per month.
EUROFER said that the rise in imports has been significantly higher than the actual increase in apparent steel consumption, which implies that imports have increased their market share in this period. Growth in imports has basically taken place in flat products which have risen by 53 percent year on year. Particularly, quarto plates, hot rolled coil, and cold rolled and organic coated sheets have seen import pressure rising in recent months. In contrast, long product imports grew by only 19 percent in the first quarter of this year. The report states that this growth figure hides significantly diverging trends at the product level: while merchant bar imports rose by more than 100 percent year on year, there was a 20 percent drop in rebar imports.
Russia and the Ukraine accounted for almost 60 percent of total steel imports into the EU. Also China continued a strong market presence. In terms of year-on-year growth, Brazil and particularly Turkey have stepped up exports to the EU significantly in recent months. Both countries together exported more to the EU than China in the first quarter of this year.
Preliminary estimates for Q2 and 2011
First customs data and estimates for Q2 steel trade signal a further 29 percent year-on-year rise in imports, to 2.7 million mt per month. In the second half of the year, imports are expected to remain at a significantly higher level than in 2010. This will result in total imports in 2011 rising by more than 26 percent, which is much faster than previously expected.
A key risk to this forecast, according to EUROFER, is third country imports rising even faster or remaining longer than expected at elevated levels. The strong euro and relatively favourable demand-side fundamentals have increased the attractiveness of the EU market for exporters. Supply-demand imbalances building up elsewhere without the required action to timely adjust output would exacerbate this situation.