In September, steel demand fell short of expectations and raw material costs remained high, causing domestic steel prices to fluctuate within a narrow range. Entering October, coke began a downward pricing cycle and iron ore prices followed a soft trend, weakening cost support and putting domestic steel prices on a fluctuating downward trend, the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) has stated.
CISA said that there were several main issues to be focused on.
First, the downward pressure on steel demand remains prominent. Globally, the World Steel Association recently forecast that global steel demand in 2026 will amount to 1.722 billion mt, but China's steel demand is expected to fall by 2.0 percent, a downward revision from its April forecast.
Second, self-disciplined production control and inventory reduction are key factors to ensure stable operations. Late October to November is a period when weakening fourth quarter demand intersects with winter storage expectations, and uncertainties on both the supply and demand sides will increase. If enterprises blindly resume production and pursue volume over price, they risk repeating the passive situation of "higher output without higher efficiency", which would drag down the price center and worsen industry losses. Therefore, enterprises should prioritize efficiency, set production based on sales, proactively control the pace of output release, and keep inventories at reasonable levels. At the same time, they should closely monitor some enterprises' winter storage policies, the pace of coke price cuts, and changes in end-user demand, avoiding any relaxation of self-discipline due to short-term profit recovery and preventing vicious price competition and regional low-price dumping.
