Shi Hongwei, vice executive secretary of China’s Iron and Steel Association (CISA), has stated that China’s crude steel output in 2021 will likely total 1.03 billion mt, down 35 million mt or 3.3 percent compared to 2020, while 990 million mt of apparent consumption of crude steel is anticipated in the given year, down by 5.5 percent year on year. This is the first decline in crude steel production in five years.
At the same time, Cheng Changsheng, head of macroeconomic research at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that China will support construction activities in 2022, including infrastructure construction, water conservation construction, upgrading old neighborhoods and agricultural construction, while monetary policy will remain stable, which will bolster China’s economic development.
Moreover, China’s scrap reservoir will likely increase by 10-15 million mt every year, with the scrap reservoir to account for 40-50 percent of crude steel output by 2030, which will impact the iron ore market.
Meanwhile, China’s rebar and wire rod outputs in 2022 may decrease by 11.0 million mt, while the rebar price may move on an overall downtrend, declining by around 13.5 percent year on year.