Australia’s metallurgical coal export earnings are forecast to decline from A$56 billion in 2023-24 to A$33 billion by 2029-30, due to a decline in prices, according to the quarterly outlook report by the Australian government’s Department of Industry, Science and Resources.
Prices for Australian benchmark premium hard coking coal (PHCC) fell throughout the first three quarters of 2024 before stabilizing in October, averaging US$244/mt for the year. The fall in prices was mostly driven by falling demand for Australian spot cargoes. China is generally the marginal buyer on the Australian spot market, and negative profit margins at Chinese steel mills during 2024 weighed on prices. Negative sentiment has continued into 2025, with prices remaining below US$200/mt for most of the year so far. Australia’s metallurgical coal exports are expected to peak at 174 million mt in 2027-28, as new mines come online. As a result, exporters are expected to take a small amount of market share from Chinese domestic suppliers.
The Australian premium hard coking coal price is forecast to fall from an estimated US$238/mt in 2024 to US$198/mt in 2025.
Also, metallurgical coal exports from Australia are expected to rise from an estimated 156 million mt in 2024-25 to 163 million mt in 2025-26.