The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has forecast a decline in US metallurgical coal exports in 2025, as rising domestic coal consumption, driven by the power sector, reduces export availability. While exports are expected to weaken next year, the agency anticipates a partial recovery in 2026, supported by mine restarts and global supply tightening.
According to the EIA, total US coal consumption is projected to reach 448 million short tons in 2025, representing a nine percent increase compared to 2024. This growth is overwhelmingly driven by the electric power sector, which is expected to account for around 90 percent of total coal use.
Coal consumption in power generation is forecast to increase by 11 percent in 2025. The EIA attributes this rise primarily to a more than 40 percent year-on-year increase in natural gas prices, alongside higher overall electricity demand. As coal becomes more competitive relative to gas, utilities are expected to increase coal-fired generation.
Metallurgical coal exports forecast to fall in 2025
As domestic coal use rises, total US coal exports are expected to decline. Metallurgical coal exports are forecast to fall by 11 percent in 2025, reducing their share of total coal disposition from 21 percent in 2024 to 18 percent in 2025.
The projected decline reflects weak global coal prices, driven by oversupply and subdued international demand, which continues to weigh on export competitiveness in key overseas markets.
Partial export recovery expected in 2026
Looking ahead, the EIA expects export conditions to improve in 2026. While domestic coal consumption is forecast to decline by five percent, largely due to lower coal use in the power sector, total coal exports are projected to increase by one percent.
The anticipated recovery will be led primarily by metallurgical coal. Met coal exports are expected to rise by eight percent in 2026, supported by capacity expansions and mine restarts in the US, the longwall expansion at the Blue Creek mine in Alabama and the reopening of the Leer South and Longview mines in West Virginia
At the same time, supply reductions among other global metallurgical coal exporters are expected to support prices, improving the competitiveness of US met coal in international markets.