Australia’s metallurgical coal export earnings are projected to hold steady at A$40 billion in 2025-26, despite softening prices and mounting trade uncertainties, according to the latest quarterly report by the Department of Industry, Science and Resources.
Thanks to resilient demand from India and Europe, and an expected increase in export volumes, the country remains on track to retain its position as a leading exporter of premium hard coking coal (PHCC).
| Metric | 2024-25 | 2025-26 forecast | 2026-27 forecast |
| Export earnings | A$40 billion | A$40 billion | A$38 billion |
| Export volume | 147 million mt | 160 million mt | 169 million mt |
| PHCC average price (US$/mt) | $235/mt | $200/mt | $200/mt |
Benchmark prices remain below US$200/mt
Prices for premium hard coking coal stayed below US$200/mt for the first five months of 2025. After bottoming at US$169/mt in March, prices recovered to US$193/mt in May, spurred by severe weather events in Queensland, mine disruptions reducing export capacity and a temporary market swing from surplus to shortage. Despite the mid-year rebound, benchmark prices are expected to average US$200/mt in 2026 and 2027, down from US$235/mt in 2024.
Trade tensions and uncertainties
The first half of 2025 saw steady global seaborne trade, closely tracking 2023 and 2024 levels. Demand has risen among key importers, India and Europe, and the supply disruptions that hampered Australia’s metallurgical coal exports are easing. However, the outlook remains mixed due to trade disputes and the associated prospects of weaker than expected economic growth. Despite the challenges of supply disruptions and trade barriers, seaborne metallurgical coal exports are expected to remain at relatively high historical levels in 2025. China’s steel overcapacity and planned blast furnace outages are reducing its metallurgical coal demand. These production cuts and steel oversupply are key risks for the second half of 2025, the report stated.