SteelOrbis talked to Mehmet Çakmur, general manager of Kocaer Steel about 2025 review and 2026 outlook.
How did 2025 go for the steel sector and global markets?
2025 was not an easy year for the steel sector. No one expected miracles, but we hoped to see clearer signs of recovery throughout the year; unfortunately, this did not happen. While demand remained largely stagnant worldwide, production capacity continued to be high. This imbalance also created serious pressure on prices and margins throughout the year.
Assessments by the World Steel Association confirm this. Global steel demand did not show meaningful growth in 2025 and remained flat. Essentially, 2025 was a year in which the market sought equilibrium and risks were managed more carefully.
One of the most important factors complicating the establishment of this balance was again China. Domestic demand in China did not recover due to weakness in the construction and real estate sectors. Although there was a decline in production, this decline was not on a scale that would ease global supply. As a result, China continued to export products it could not consume in its domestic market. This created additional pressure on prices, particularly in Asia and Europe, and brought protectionist measures and antidumping debates back on the agenda in many countries.
In Europe, we saw a cautious approach to this global pressure environment. The lack of a significant upturn in demand, particularly in the automotive and construction sectors, led producers to occasionally resort to capacity cuts and maintenance shutdowns in order to maintain prices. However, overall, Europe focused on controlling costs, reducing inventory risks and entering 2026 on a stronger footing, rather than on growth.
The picture was slightly more complex for Turkey, but not entirely negative. In the second half of the year, we saw increases in production and domestic consumption compared to the previous year. Nevertheless, these increases were not enough to say that the sector as a whole had “relaxed”.
Relatively cheaper imports, increased competition in export markets, and protectionist practices narrowed the room for maneuver for manufacturers. Add to this high financing costs, currency fluctuations and the pressure of the green transformation, and 2025 was a year in which companies struggled to stay afloat and maintain their position.
As the OECD also points out, without resolving the global overcapacity issue, it seems difficult for prices to recover permanently and for investments to gain momentum. This challenge is even more pronounced during a capital-intensive transformation process such as decarbonization.
I can summarize the issues that most affected us in 2025 in a few key points. The 50 percent tariff imposed by the US had a negative impact on our exports to the US in the second half of the year. While the European market progressed under the constraints of quotas throughout the year, uncertainties regarding the CBAM and rumors that quotas would be further reduced in the last quarter weakened our European sales, as they did across the entire steel sector. In the South American and MENA markets, the presence of Chinese products became much more noticeable.
Despite this challenging picture, we focused on managing the process with controlled growth, strong exports and financial discipline. In an environment marked by supply-demand imbalances, trade restrictions and price pressures, we sought to differentiate ourselves positively thanks to our geographically diversified sales structure and value-added strategy. We increased our sales by more than 15 percent in 2025 compared to 2024. Our exports exceeded 80 percent of total sales. This structure became one of the most important balancing factors for us in volatile market conditions.
In summary, while 2025 was a challenging year for the steel sector, we demonstrated a sustainable performance by prioritizing stability over rapid growth, quality growth over volume, and maintaining stability over taking risks in this environment.
What are your expectations for 2026?
We will not abandon our cautious approach in 2026. This is because the coming year will also be a challenging year for the sector that requires careful management.
While limited movement is expected on the demand side, we expect trade policies, geopolitical uncertainties, and cost pressures to continue to affect the market. Analyses by institutions such as the World Steel Association and the OECD also point to a controlled and fragile balance rather than a rapid recovery.
In Europe, the main determining factors will be CBAM and the green transformation. 2026 will be a year when sustainability is no longer just a slogan, but a direct cost and competitiveness issue. This means a search for a new balance for both European producers and companies exporting to Europe.
Turkey stands out as one of the countries that will be most deeply affected by restrictive trade elements such as these quota applications and additional taxation mechanisms. The global overcapacity problem will not be resolved in 2026 either. Therefore, a permanent and strong recovery in prices seems difficult; companies that manage their costs, cash flow and risks well will come to the fore.
For our country, 2026 will again be a year that requires selectivity and caution. While infrastructure, industry and energy investments will be decisive in domestic demand, import pressure, intense competition in export markets and high financing costs will continue to challenge companies. In these challenging market conditions, efficiency, cost discipline, operational flexibility and a focus on producing value-added products will be more important than ever.
As a company, we believe that 2026 could be a more balanced and predictable year compared to 2025. However, in a sector characterized by high uncertainty, we are not acting based on optimistic scenarios.
We base all our planning on the most negative scenario; we adopt this approach not as a short-term measure, but as an integral part of our long-term sustainability strategy. As we prepare for 2026 and beyond, our priority is to emerge stronger and better equipped.
By steadily strengthening our sales organization, we aim to establish a more selective, active and effective structure in both export markets and the domestic market.
Working with our marketing team to shape our future strategies, we prioritize taking our service quality to the next level with our solution-oriented approach.
We are continuing our sustainability efforts without slowing down. We are working resolutely with all our teams on efficiency, one of the most important elements of this process, taking structural steps to keep our costs under control and increase our operational resilience.
With our strong belief in Turkey's future, we will continue to move forward in a more planned, disciplined, and determined manner, aiming to be a company that makes a difference.
For us, 2026 and beyond means not only managing today but also building a stronger tomorrow.