Contrasting expectations for Chinese seamless pipe market in September

Activity in the Chinese seamless pipe market has been slack and shows no signs of recovery amid the absence of solid demand from downstream industries. Over the past two weeks, domestic prices of seamless pipes have decreased by RMB 100-150/mt ($15-23/mt) in line with the unsatisfactory market performance. Export offers of seamless pipes from China have declined by $20-40/mt over the same period amid softening iron ore costs, low sales and a depressed domestic market. Most seamless pipe producers in China are reluctant to cut their quotations in the near future, expecting for a price rebound in September when demand should be released gradually. However, some market participants are still not so optimistic about the market outlook for September considering the low raw material prices and the weak demand from downstream industries.
 
Domestic prices of 4"-8" seamless pipes according to GB/8162-8163 are varying at around RMB 4,100-4,500/mt ($665-730/mt) ex-works, while prices of 1 ½"-2" pipes are varying at around RMB 5,500-5,700/mt ($892-925/mt) ex-works, including 17 percent VAT.
 
Chinese ex-stock prices for 2"-8" seamless pipes according to GB/8162-8163 in Shanghai are at around RMB 3,600-3,800/mt ($584-616/mt) ex-warehouse, including 17 percent VAT, while traders in Tianjin and Beijing are offering the same pipes at around RMB 3,550-3,900/mt ($576-633/mt) ex-warehouse.
 
Current export quotations from most Chinese manufacturers for 1 ½"-12" grade B seamless pipes according to ASTM A106/API 5L are on average at $610-660/mt FOB, while export offers of 14"-16" are in the range of $670-720/mt FOB.
 
$1 = RMB 6.14