The situation in the Russian basic pig iron (BPI) market has been difficult as speculation has been widely seen recently since the mood among buyers has remained negative, while exporters have been spreading much higher numbers. All eyes are on the European market, where 61 percent of the quota for the whole of 2025 has now been exhausted.
There has been a rumor about a sale of 30,000 mt of Russian pig iron to Europe at $380/mt CFR, which translates to around $340-350/mt FOB. However, most market sources doubt it is a fresh sale as a cargo of a similar size arrived on January 5 and it is possible that the price had been negotiated earlier. Also, large European customers have been giving much lower price ideas - at $340-350/mt CFR, similar to last week. “It’s risky to do new deals as the quotas left are 270,000 mt and shipment is in February,” a European source said. One of the Russian mills has been actively asking for very high levels of $390-400/mt CFR, saying that European customers will have to pay higher prices as the quota for this year is smaller, only 700,000 mt versus 1.14 million in 2024. It is expected that price speculation from Russia will continue as, with the quota filling up, the tradable level in the global market for Russia will be much lower.
In particular, in Turkey, after scrap has slipped further, the tradable level has been at $330-335/mt CFR at the highest and some sanctioned mills have been ready to offer $305/mt on FOB basis, translating to $325-330/mt CFR. “The Turks are not ready for the price asked by suppliers in Europe. They have sanctioned mills which provide discounts,” a trader said. Targets for low-manganese pig iron from Russia were at $340-350/mt CFR before the latest decline in scrap.
The SteelOrbis reference price stands at $300-340/mt FOB, with the mid-point at $320/mt FOB Black Sea, increasing by $5/mt on average.