With the impact of the war in the Middle East on oil and natural gas prices and rises in energy prices in Turkey expected to be announced as of April 4, prices of scrap and also rebar in Turkey are foreseen to move up in the coming period.
Despite the rumor that in an ex-Canada deal the premium HMS I/II 80:20 scrap price has increased to $402/mt CFR Turkey, this information was not confirmed by market sources. “I do not think players have accepted the level or digested the idea that deep sea scrap prices are now above $400/mt CFR,” a scrap seller commented. Due to the lack of general acceptance of this rumor, SteelOrbis has not changed its deep sea scrap reference price in the current week, but will wait to see the next ex-US scrap booking before making a change.
On the other hand, with the disruptions of sea transportation amid fluctuating oil prices and the continuation of the war, SteelOrbis expects to see increases in the international scrap market. While Turkish mills are facing postponements of their billet and slab orders, they also need to buy scrap for May shipment. Sources report that some mills have had to cut their production amid these postponements, causing the steel demand received by other mills to increase, creating gaps in their scrap inventories. The local European scrap market is expected to remain stable with significant potential to move up in April, while the US scrap market is giving signals of a sideways movement to a $20/mt decrease. Collection prices in the EU have increased above €290/mt DAP, sources report, adding that flow to yards is on the low side. On the US East Coast, a sideways movement has been seen. “The Europeans will now try to push their prices above $400/mt CFR Turkey, but I hear the number of offers in the market has increased late this week,” a European scrap seller commented today, April 3. A source at a Turkish mill also accepted that ex-US HMS I/II 80:20 scrap quotations are closer to touching $405/mt CFR. As a result, SteelOrbis believes that the size of future increases in Turkey’s import scrap market will be determined by developments regarding the war and by the local and export steel sales of Turkey in the first days of April.
As a note, Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, has warned that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered one of the most severe global energy security crises in history, with oil and gas supply losses expected to worsen significantly in April and impact both Asia and Europe. Even if the Strait reopens immediately, damaged infrastructure and halted shipments mean the effects will persist for months, keeping prices high and increasing risks of inflation, slower growth and economic strain, especially for developing countries. The crisis is likely to accelerate structural shifts in the global energy system, including faster adoption of renewables, a return to nuclear energy, growth in electric vehicles, and in some cases a short-term shift back to coal.
Under the current conditions, the deep sea benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices in CFR terms have remained stable week on week. The prices are now 6.2 percent higher month on month in the deep sea segment, with prices being in the range of $390-398/mt CFR.
The US domestic ferrous scrap market is expected to reach an inflection point in April, with prices decreasing by $20/gt ($20.3/mt) for secondary/obsolete grades, while prime grades could remain sideways.
During their latest guidance reports, Nucor and SDI announced a positive outlook for steel in 2026. The export market has also seen improvements. Scrap trading to Asia has also been solid, with import prices in Bangladesh, Vietnam, Taiwan and India climbing in the past three weeks. On the other hand, some participants in the US ferrous scrap sector still held hope for a sideways market in April, but those expectations were dashed this week as several prominent buyers began issuing order cancellations, expecting lower prices for some grades. There seems to be frustration among sellers (both in the domestic market and at docks) that the benefits of higher finished domestic steel and higher scrap export prices are not trickling down to them.
Ferrous scrap prices to the US East Coast (USEC) docks remained sideways this week despite increases in export prices to Turkey. US East Coast-based exporters claim that higher freight costs, caused by increased oil prices after the start of the war on Iran, have eroded their margins. In New York and Philadelphia, the price of HMS I remains at $270-280/gt delivered to export yard (with some sellers reporting they are still in the $260-270/gt delivered to export yard range). Boston prices to docks remained unchanged this week as well, with HMS I at $250-260/gt delivered and shredder feed at $160/gt delivered.
Prices for containerized ferrous scrap on the US West Coast (USWC) have remained stable this week due to solid demand from the Asian markets. The price of containerized HMS I/II 80:20 to Los Angeles (LA) docks remains unchanged at $325-330/mt FAS port. A minority of contacts reported prices slightly lower at $320-325/mt FAS LA port. Regarding bulk ferrous scrap prices, US West Coast exporters announced earlier this week that they had reduced dock prices by $10/gt ($10.16/mt). Meanwhile, the prices for containerized ferrous scrap on the US East Coast remained unchanged this week as well as the price of HMS I/II (80:20) reported at $325/mt FAS New York (NY) port.
The local scrap market in Germany is still struggling with rising fuel costs and the uncertainty deriving from the war in the Middle East, and the positive outlook seen at the beginning of this year is now fading away. Sources interviewed by SteelOrbis believe that scrap prices will remain mostly stable in April, as the market seems slow in accepting higher finished steel prices and scrap demand from mills is reported to be on the low side.
As for exports, sources have reported HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices at German ports at €287-292/mt DAP, up €7/mt on both ends of the range compared to last week.
The local scrap market in Italy has remained mostly stable this week, as most market players are waiting for the end of the Easter holidays, hoping to see more clarity in the international landscape. According to suppliers, scrap availability remains scarce, but at the same time mills do not have a great will to buy.
Despite the upward movements observed in the international market, Italian scrap traders are doubtful that a rebound of the same extent can also be translated into the domestic market, and they are expecting a mainly stable outlook for April. Some of them, however, are confident that, after a long period of absence from purchases, mills will return to buy, accepting some slight increases in scrap prices. However, for the time being, most Italian producers are determined to keep their scrap purchase prices unchanged in April. "At the moment, our main concern comes from higher energy costs and higher prices of other raw materials, such as ferroalloys and electrodes," a representative of a major Italian mill said.
The leading Japanese EAF-based steel producer Tokyo Steel has increased its local scrap purchase prices once more today, March 31, following the hikes announced on March 18 and March 20. The general price range for H2 grade scrap has moved up by JPY 1,500-2,000/mt as compared to the levels recorded on March 12 to JPY 50,000/mt ($313/mt) depending on the mill. Including the changes in the exchange rates, the dollar-based quotations have increased by $7-10/mt.
The Tokyo Bay FAS-based prices for H2 grade scrap have remained stable since last week at JPY 48,500/mt ($304/mt). The FOB-based export price remains at JPY 49,500/mt ($310/mt) for the grade in question.
Taiwanese producers have accepted higher price levels for import and domestic scrap this week, amid Japanese suppliers’ lack of interest in offering to Taiwan amid the ongoing scrap price increases seen not only in Turkey but also in Bangladesh and Japan. The price increases are expected to continue in the short term, despite the lack of support from the local Taiwanese rebar market.
Offer prices for ex-US HMS I/II (80:20) scrap in containers to Taiwan have increased over the past week from the range of $345-347/mt CFR to $347-353/mt CFR. Japanese H1/2 (50:50) offers to Taiwan have not returned to the market this week. Market sources report that the only offers they received from Japan were for HS grades, again at $388/mt CFR, as compared to last week’s $388-393/mt CFR.
Vietnamese buyers have faced higher offer prices from import scrap supplier regions in the current week amid the ongoing upward push observed in the international scrap markets as well as the competition with other buyers, while Japan’s own local market has also moved up.
Ex-US bulk HMS I/II 80:20 scrap offers to Vietnam have increased from the range of $390-395/mt CFR to $395-400/mt CFR. Japanese H2 scrap offers to Vietnam have also moved up, from $375-380/mt CFR to $385/mt CFR.
