The US domestic ferrous scrap market is expected to reach an inflection point in April, with prices decreasing by $20/gt ($20.3/mt) for secondary/obsolete grades, while prime grades could remain sideways.
US domestic grades have been on a positive run since December 2025, when extraordinarily harsh winter conditions across the US strained scrap generation and limited supply. During this time, the price of #1 busheling in Chicago appreciated approximately 15 percent to around $450/gt ($457.2/mt) from close to $390/gt ($396.2/mt), both delivered consumer.
On the positive side of scrap
During their latest guidance reports, Nucor and SDI announced a positive outlook for steel in 2026 given expected strong performance from key sectors such as construction and the data center segment. Both companies envision a stronger quarterly financial performance in Q1 given a higher volume of shipments and better steel prices.
The export market has also seen improvements. Granted, the export market to Turkey was dormant for the several past weeks. Yet activity picked up the pace at the end of last week as it is reported that Turkey needs at least 20 cargoes for May shipment. The price of US-origin HMS I/II 80:20 surpassed the $400/mt CFR Turkey threshold, settling at $402/mt CFR, up by 7.48 percent from $374/mt CFR in mid-March.
Scrap trading to Asia has also been solid, with import prices in Bangladesh, Vietnam, Taiwan, and India climbing in the past three weeks. Pig iron has also seen almost weekly $5-10/mt increases and currently sits at $490/mt CFR US, compared to $470/mt CFR at the beginning of March.
The downside
Some participants in the US ferrous scrap sector still held hope for a sideways market in April, but those expectations were dashed this week as several prominent buyers began issuing order cancellations, expecting lower prices for some grades. There seems to be frustration among sellers (both in the domestic and docks markets) that the benefits of higher finished domestic steel and higher scrap export prices are not trickling down to them.
In both instances, the term “margin protection” is a recurring theme among mills and exporters. Protection in the face of uncertainty over climbing energy and fuel costs due to the disruptions caused by the US-Israel-Iran war.
The bulk freight cost from the US East Coast (USEC) increased to $44-45/mt CFR Turkey from below $40/mt CFR last month. But more than the demonstrable figures, buyers are pointing to potential risks in the weeks ahead.
Moreover, 14 US-based mills are reportedly entering scheduled maintenance shutdowns in April, for a total of approximately 59 days of downtime (with some mills’ downtime undetermined). March had 37 days of downtime among nine mills, by comparison. This is expected to impact scrap consumption in April.
US ferrous scrap trading for the domestic market is expected to begin early next week.
