In the middle of the current week, Turkey’s deep sea scrap prices have maintained their upward trend, though slowing somewhat. The positive sentiment surrounding Turkey’s deep sea scrap market earlier this month due to the expectations of a recovery in production rates across the EU and the US has not been met with support from the end-user side. Despite the tariff risks for steel imports into the US, market sources report that a rebound in steel demand is not yet seen in the US. The same can be said for the EU where a recovery is yet to be seen in the finished steel market. Turkey’s long steel demand and prices are also failing to provide enough support for higher scrap prices.
Meanwhile, the dynamics of scrap have not changed much. European scrap suppliers report lower collection prices at EU-based export yards, though they also report that the flow to yards has slowed down significantly amid lower price levels. Collection prices at EU-based export yards have declined to €300/mt DAP this week, dropping by €5-10/mt as compared to the levels recorded earlier this month. A source at a major scrap supplier reported that US-based export yards are struggling to find the volumes they need. “The more attractive prices in the local US scrap market have led sub-collectors to send their scrap to domestic mills, and now exporters are forced to compete with them to change the destination of scrap flow,” the source added.
This last comment may have been reflected in the most recent ex-US scrap deals. An Iskenderun-based steel producer concluded a deal yesterday, March 13, from the US with the HMS I/II 80:20 scrap price standing at $380/mt CFR. This price is $5.5/mt higher than the estimations made early yesterday for this grade. Market sources report that there was another deal signed by the same producer earlier this week, again from the US for bonus grade at $395/mt CFR. This information has not been confirmed by the buyer or the seller at the time of publication. SteelOrbis’ ex-US HMS I/II 80:20 scrap price has been revised to $380/mt CFR as of today, March 14. This push coming out of the US will inevitably cause a further increase in ex-EU scrap prices, which are now estimated at $370-372/mt CFR.
SteelOrbis hears that there are offers available in the market, both from the EU and the US sellers. However, negotiations between sellers and buyers are not fruitful yet, with bids being unattractive to sellers in some cases. The abovementioned ex-US booking may increase buyers’ interest in purchases in the coming week, especially if Turkey’s steel sales accelerate. As Mustafa Gültepe, president of the Turkish Exporters Assembly, mentioned today, the stronger euro may create advantages for Turkey. Mr. Gültepe pointed out that Turkey’s exports are transacted more in euros than in US dollars, with a 49.7 percent share as compared to dollar’s 43 percent. “The appreciation of the euro against the US dollar contributes to our exporters’ gains in foreign currency,” he said.
Meanwhile, Turkey’s most recent ex-Romania cargo has been closed at $352/mt CFR. The previous levels for this grade were in the range of $347-350/mt CFR. With the positive expectations regarding European scrap prices, SteelOrbis has revised its short sea scrap reference price to $354/mt CFR on average.
Under the current conditions, the deep sea benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices in CFR terms have moved up by 1.49 percent week on week. The prices are now 5.26 percent higher month on month in the deep sea segment, with prices being in the range of $370-380/mt CFR.
March US scrap prices in the Ohio Valley have settled up $20-30/gt versus February values amid reports of continued low inventory and as industry concerns have grown that import tariffs could reduce finished steel and scrap supply. US Northeast March scrap prices settled $20/gt higher on continued reports of limited but better inventory at local mills and suppliers.
US scrap market insiders told SteelOrbis that optimism in the domestic scrap market is growing given recent consistent price increases. “I mean its spring, but the export market is steady, and the domestic mill business is picking up,” an insider said, adding, “Things are starting to look better in the steel world, and that’s good to see.”
“Scrap dealers are selling, and steel mills are buying,” another Midwest scrap supplier commented to SteelOrbis about the late action during the monthly March buy-cycle negotiations. He went on to say, “Nobody is really sure at this point what the outlook for April is, but my opinion is that things are looking like they will set up sideways at this point. I think no matter what happens, (April scrap) won’t be up or down by very much.”
Another Midwest mill contact offered more certainty on the April outlook, especially given the recent higher prices paid by mills. “We see the April market at sideways to lower,” he remarked, adding, “Plenty of scrap is flowing at these levels.”
Negotiations for monthly contracts in the scrap market in Italy are underway this week. According to sources, a higher-than-expected upward trend has been confirmed, with an average increase of around €10/mt for all scrap grades.
Scrap availability, in fact, still seems to be very scarce, especially for some categories such as new scrap. On the other hand, however, steel producers are reluctant to grant such increases, because demand for finished steel is still low and prices cannot rise much further.
As for the local scrap market in Spain, the trend has been very similar. Increases of around €10/mt are expected for all scrap grades, while in the import market the rises have already been confirmed: E1 stands at around €340/mt, E3 at around €360/mt and E40 at around €370/mt, up by €10/mt week on week. All prices are DAP, ports of northern Spain.
Local prices in the German market have followed the uptrend of the European and international markets, with scrap prices in new monthly deals rising by a range of €10-20/mt.
The overall market scenario has not changed. The scrap quantities available are still low, and finished steel demand remains sluggish both from the local and export markets.
Collection prices for export yards marked a €5/mt decline week on week and they are now standing in the range of €300-305/mt DAP for HMS I/II 80:20.
Ex-Germany scrap prices to Italy, instead, marked a rise, and they were reported at €380-385/mt for E8C, around €360/mt for E8, around €350/mt for E3, €330-335/mt for E1 and €325-330/mt for E5. All prices are delivered to mill.
Monthly negotiations for scrap contracts are underway these days in the local scrap market in Poland. A local mill in Poland reported that it has accepted a €7/mt rise for HMS I/II scrap and a €12/mt increase for HMS II scrap, whereas purchase prices for new scrap have remained stable compared to last month.
The euro-zloty exchange rate remains negative for exports, and scrap collection prices to export yards have declined by around €10/mt on the higher end, settling at around €310/mt for HMS I/II 80:20.
After moving down last month, the Kanto scrap export tender in Japan was closed with a price increase on March 11. The upward revision of the price largely surpassed the drop recorded in February.
In the Kanto export tender, the highest bid was at JPY 44,226/mt FAS, JPY 1,026/mt higher than last month. The dollar-based price has increased from $281/mt to $297/mt FAS, taking into account exchange rate changes. The FAS price translates to JPY 45,226/mt FOB or $304/mt FOB, up $7/mt as compared to last month amid exchange rate volatility.
Over the past week, Taiwan’s import scrap prices have remained more or less stable, despite the slight changes in scrap prices both in offers and deals. Taiwan’s rebar market has been sluggish once again. The deals done two weeks ago afford buyers some time as they continue to watch US President Trump’s actions and how the US tariffs will impact the market.
Offers for ex-US HMS I/II (80:20) scrap in containers to Taiwan have remained relatively stable this week, down from the range of $319-325/mt CFR to $318-323/mt CFR. The number of offers shared for Japanese H1/2 (50:50) scrap in bulk have increased once again this week. Offers are now in the range of $327-342/mt CFR as compared to $328-330/mt CFR recorded last week.
Vietnam’s import scrap prices have followed diverse trends. While Japanese suppliers have increased their offer prices to Vietnam over the past week, US-based suppliers have reduced their offer prices. Market sources report that interest in bulk offers is limited in Vietnam, which may result in a stronger appetite for Japanese scrap.
Over the past week, offers for Japanese H2 scrap to Vietnam have moved up by $10/mt to $335-340/mt CFR this week. Ex-US bulk HMS I/II 80:20 scrap offers to Vietnam have moved down by $5/mt on the upper end to $360-365/mt CFR, settling back to the range recorded two weeks ago.