March US scrap prices in the Ohio Valley settled between $20-30/gt higher versus February settles late this week after an extended March buy-cycle negotiation period, spurred by continued uncertainty about the effects of US tariffs on import steel supply, market insiders told SteelOrbis.
Expectations for March scrap were initially higher than this week’s settled values, with many contacts indicating to SteelOrbis their expectation for March prime scrap grades as high as $50/gt ($51/mt) over February settles, though later reports proved lower as a growing bullish expectation spurred suppliers to send significant volumes to domestic buyers. And, as availability increased, prices failed to move up as expected as demand from mills proved more limited, market insiders told SteelOrbis.
“This month’s delay for the March settles was pretty much the result of heightened uncertainty over the expected start of import tariffs,” said one Midwest scrap insider. “Supply is expected to remain tight as imports might be reduced with tariffs.”
At the conclusion of the March buy-cycle, prime grades of March busheling scrap in the US Ohio Valley settled $30/gt ($30/mt) higher to $485-510/gt ($493-518/mt) delivered to customer, while shredded grades settled an average $25/gt ($25/mt) up at $455-460/gt ($462-467/mt) on a delivered basis. HMS and P&S grades showed a $20/gt ($20/mt) rise from February settles at $395-415/gt ($401-422/mt), and $441-451/gt ($448-458/mt, respectively, on a delivered basis.
Scrap insiders told SteelOrbis optimism in the domestic scrap market is growing given recent consistent price increases. “I mean its spring, but the export market is steady, and the domestic mill business is picking up,” an insider said. “Things are starting to look better in the steel world, and that’s good to see.”
“Scrap dealers are selling, and steel mills are buying,” another Midwest scrap supplier commented to SteelOrbis about late action during the monthly March buy-cycle negotiations. “Nobody is really sure at this point what the outlook for April is, but my opinion is that things are looking like they will set up sideways at this point. I think no matter what happens, (April scrap) won’t be up or down by very much.”
Another Midwest mill contact offered more surety on the April outlook, especially given recent higher prices paid by mills.
“We see the April market at sideways to lower,” the Midwest mill contact remarked. “Plenty of scrap is flowing at these levels.”
In the US Northeast, monthly scrap price expectations, which started the March buy-cycle period as high as $35/gt ($36/mt) premiums across all grades, settled lower towards the $20/gt level on a delivered basis as more supply became available from sub-collectors amid rising supplier offers at local yards and warmer weather-inspired inflows, insiders said. Better price expectations in Midwest markets also were said to have diverted a portion of that East Coast scrap away from local markets.
“We saw a de-coupling of the domestic scrap market from the export market,” said one Northeast scrap insider. “Better prices were available to the west, and the export market has been a little sluggish.”
On the US East Coast, prime busheling scrap settled at $430-450/gt ($437-457/mt) delivered, while shredded material was settled at $405-415/gt ($411-422/mt) on a delivered basis. In cut grades, HMS 1 was settled near $375-390/gt ($381-396/mt) delivered, while P&S graded scrap was heard settled on a delivered basis at $375-385/gt ($381-391/mt).