Citing a slew of incoming imports from Turkey, Mexico and elsewhere, Nucor rescinded its $20/nt ($1.00 cwt. or $22/mt) rebar price increase late last week, followed this week by Gerdau and SDI. Indeed, US import license data show that 192,586 mt of rebar arrived in the US in January--a record monthly tonnage level compared to the Q1 import flood of recent years. With so much imported rebar available at the ports (much of it is comprised of position buys), it was a reasonable decision for US mills to make, especially in light of downtrending scrap prices, but many in the US market are viewing it as a temporary dip in an otherwise strong uptrend for the product. Once the rebar trade case is finalized (the date for the preliminary decision has been pushed back to April 18), and construction activity heats up along with temperatures around the same time, US mills are banking on a gradual, overall firming of prices for the rest of the year. Until then, US domestic rebar spot prices are down to $33.50-$34.50 cwt. ($670-$690/nt or $739-$760/mt) ex-mill.
However, it’s not only already-arrived rebar imports that US mills are worried about. Offer prices for future arrivals are continuing to dip, as Turkish mills virtually ignore the trade case against them. Rebar offers from Turkey are now in the range of $30.50-$31.50 cwt. ($610-$630/nt or $672-$694/mt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports, reflecting a $0.50 cwt. ($10/nt or $11/mt) decrease since last week, while also-disputed Mexican rebar can be found in the range of $32.00-$33.00 cwt. ($640-$660/nt or $705-$728/mt) FOB loaded rail car. With such competitive prices, Portugal isn’t much of a market player at the moment, although Taiwanese offers are still in the range of $32.50-$33.50 cwt. ($650-$670/nt or $717-$739/mt) DDP loaded truck in US West Coast ports, with traders hinting at a downtrend soon.