The billet market in Turkey has been witnessing some shifts in its balance since, while the availability of cheap imports with short lead times is currently limited, mainly from Russia/Donbass and Iran, the prices for most Asian origins, which are on offer for September-October shipments, are considered to be high and unworkable. In this situation, while rebar sales still remain on the slow side in the domestic and export markets, some sources expect more attention will be paid to local billet and that prices may improve slightly, again falling out of balance with longs prices.
Since late July, the flow of billet from Russia and Donbass to Turkey has been limited significantly due to the increased war-related dangers affecting maritime operations in the Black Sea and Azov Sea. With the ongoing mutual attacks on logistics in the Russia-Ukraine war, including on vessels and port facilities, the possibility of shipments from Russian ports in the region has almost shrunk to zero, at least for the time being. As a result, there are currently no billet offers from Russia to Turkey. The estimated price level would not be above $490/mt CFR which, given increased freights of around $40-50/mt, would make $440-450/mt FOB. However, since there are no actual offers, the SteelOrbis daily reference price for Russian billet is set at $460/mt FOB as a potential starting price for negotiations, down from $465-470/mt FOB seen last week. “It is about danger, about vessel availability, and, even if you find one, there is no insurance and crazy freight rates. So, no mill [from Russia] can export even with the value of the rouble helping now,” a supplier told SteelOrbis.
As for Iran, truckload offers have increased by $5-10/mt to $480-485/mt DAP, with some deals still closed at $470-475/mt DAP, sources reported. In the meantime, the renewed trouble in the Strait of Hormuz has limited the availability of bulk billet cargoes from the area. “Bulk options will be clear by next week. Lots of cargoes are there, but I assume they will be offered once they have sailed,” a trader told SteelOrbis.
Currently, the ex-China billet price in Turkey is at around $502-506/mt CFR depending on the trader, down from $507-510/mt CFR last week, while one cargo, according to sources, has been booked at slightly below $500/mt CFR. Most sources believe that, while on the suppliers' side such a level is possible, there is hardly any buyer in Turkey to accept it since most price ideas lately have been at $485-490/mt CFR and below. Around 30,000 mt of Malaysian billet is currently in the market at $520-525/mt CFR, with no fresh deals reported. According to sources, there have been some aggressive offers from India this week at down to $485/mt CFR, which many market players considered simply to be “fishing”. “Below $500/mt CFR does not seem possible. Even maybe $505/mt CFR should be the minimal level if anyone has a cargo in hand,” a source said.
In Turkey's domestic billet market, offers in the Iskenderun region are mainly at $540-550/mt ex-works, while in the past week, according to sources, 18,000 mt in total were sold at around $533/mt ex-works. In the Izmir area, the indicative offers are at $550-555/mt ex-works, with no fresh deals reported.
