Although sources tell SteelOrbis that Turkish mills are “desperate” for orders and becoming more flexible with bids, the downward trend has not yet reflected in sales prices in the US as traders see just how low prices can go. Considering the drops thus far are in the $5/mt range on the CFR level, it’s possible some buyers in the US are already booking for below the current $18.00-$19.00 cwt. ($360-$380/nt or $397-$419/mt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf port range. But some traders tell SteelOrbis that if export scrap prices from the US to Turkey don’t soften as expected once transactions resume, the flexibility seen with Turkish mills might end, even if order books are light.
As for the US domestic rebar market, there is little chance mills will drop transaction prices now that it seems like the US scrap market has finally found its footing. The market forces that resulted in this week’s substantial $3.50 cwt. ($70/nt or $77/mt) price decrease for merchant bar are said to be exclusive to that market, even though both markets are plagued by imports. As such, spot prices are expected to slowly firm from their current wide range of $26.00 cwt. ($520/nt or $573/mt) ex-mill on the low end and $29.00 cwt. ($580/nt or $639/mt) ex-mill on the high end, with low-end deals drying up by as early as next week.