According to Turkish market sources, US authorities have recently disclosed the results of the antidumping case revision on Turkish rebar imports depending on the supplier. The adjusted measure might open the doors of the US import market to Turkey a little wider from now on, however, the volumes are for sure to be lower than before the initial AD tax imposition since the import market structure has changed significantly since then.
Market information states, that several Turkish mills have succeeded to receive a significant reduction or zero AD tax, which was initially 25.86 percent for most of them. As a result, few suppliers who have been out of the market for the past couple of years might regain partial presence in the US rebar imports. Particularly, ICDAS has received zero percent AD instead of 25.86 percent, while Kaptan D.C. now has 1.3 percent instead of the same number. On the contrary, rebar from Colakoglu Metalurji is now subject to 1.3 percent instead of the previous zero percent. Kroman D.C. is subject to 1.02 percent rebar currently, same as previous percentage.
As a result, coupled with the existing CVD rates and 25 percent valid Section 232, three rebar producers from now on have good chances to sell rebar to the US being capable of limited competition with Algeria and Egypt, who export from the same region and have only Section 232 25 percent tax. In particular, Colakoglu Metalurji and Kroman, who were selling previously as well as their AD rates were low, will continue their presence with a combined rates of 26.13 and 27.27 percent, respectively. ICDAS is expected to return to the US market after a while of absence since now its combined rate is 27.15 percent. Other potential rebar suppliers from Turkey now have a combined duty rate from 30.15 to 54.23 percent.
Still, while in the good old days the US market was one of the key and most regular outlets for Turkish rebar before the Section 232 imposition and followed additional cases, from now on the volumes of supply will be far from the previous since the market share had been lost to the alternative suppliers over the past couple of years, SteelOrbis understands. Particularly, in 2024, Egypt and Algeria became regular with the US market and exported around 206,000 mt and 92,000 mt of rebar, respectively, while Bulgaria, which was exempt from Section 232, traded over 95,000 mt in the same period. In addition, Vietnam entered the market of the US with a total of over 56,000 mt rebar sales to the US, while Canada and Mexico totaled around 85,000 mt and 140,000 mt, respectively. At the same time sales from Turkey in 2024, were represented by two mentioned mills with the result of almost 73,000 mt of rebar.
“Market has changed a lot since then and new suppliers emerged, and sure Turkish share will be not the same. Also, will not be easy to sell back to back since at least by now Turkish mills were bringing material to the US and were selling it from the ground,” a source told SteelOrbis. “Another thing is that if due to the Trump tariff madness the supplies from Canada and Mexico are disrupted, there will be a bit more space. Also, not clear yet how things proceed with Bulgaria and if the incentive is renewed,” another source added.