US import rebar and wire rod pricing resumed upward movement this week, fueled by reports that record low finished steel imports continue to reduce available supply, market insiders told SteelOrbis. The combination of ongoing 50 percent steel import tariffs and the enhanced importer risk associated with ongoing anti-dumping cases currently under review by the US Department of Commerce (DOC), continues to limit the amount of material available, they said.
“There’s very limited sources of supply available to the market right now,” remarked one US Gulf Coast importer. “Record low imports are likely to continue over the next 6 months or so, as additional anti-dumping cases get settled.”
On August 12, media reports indicate a preliminary anti-dumping margin of 18.87 percent was assigned for Colakoglu Metalurji A.S and Colakoglu Dis Ticaret A.S. of Turkey, with the DOC finding they sold rebar at less than fair value during the period of July 1, 2023 through June 30, 2024. The final results of the investigation are expected within 120 days. The previous AD rate for the company stood at 1.13 percent, while the minimal rates for other Turkish mills were at 1.02 to 3.9 percent and up to 25.83 percent as highest.
“Colakoglu-Metrade has material on the ground but they are running out of sizes and also not quoting due to high (anti dumping duties),” a second import insider told SteelOrbis. “They have a ship coming into Houston in October, but that’s all I’ve heard.”
This week, import rebar on a loaded truck basis on the US Gulf Coast is discussed at $43-44/cwt., ($860-880/nt or $948-970/mt), or on average $43.50/cwt., up from $41.00-43.00/cwt., ($820-860/nt or $904-948/mt), one week prior. On the US East Coast, import rebar gained a bit less, insiders said, settling the week about $1.00/cwt., higher at $43.00-46.00/cwt., ($860-920/nt or $948-1,014/mt) amid continued reports suppliers are seeing reductions on some sizes of rebar product as imports wane and domestic mills struggle to fill a growing supply gap.
Insiders say as ongoing AD cases and tariffs continue to cloud the near to mid-term supply outlook, importers are “looking at future supplies from Oman, UAE, as well as Turkey.” They added that some of their colleagues are surprised that the outlook for September scrap in the US is not “through the roof” as a result of continued low imports.
At last report, US local scrap contacts are calling September scrap sideways to potentially down next month as demand for scrap is expected to be reduced starting in September as many US mills begin yearly scheduled maintenance operations that last through December. Some insiders caution reduced import flexibility could make current import long steel markets more susceptible to price spikes, especially if domestic demand improves.
“Order intake increases at US mills should see stronger scrap prices, but we’re not seeing that,” remarked the SteelOrbis insider. “What I see on the long steel import side is that domestic rebar seems to be a little tighter and that mills are busier,” he said. “With the tariffs in place what it means for importers is that barely any trades are getting done. With any kind of unexpected demand increase, things could get really interesting, especially if US mills start to lag behind in their deliveries. As it stands now, importers are basically waiting for US prices to rise, so as to enable imports to resume with the current 50 percent tariffs in place.”
As supplies continue to tighten, insiders told SteelOrbis that reports are beginning to circulate in steel trading circles about the strong possibility of another rebar price increase of about $40/nt ($44/mt), or $2.00/cwt., from US mills toward the end of August. And, while not representative of the majority of weekly trade, insiders reported to SteelOrbis that Nucor sold small single truckloads of domestic rebar as high as $46.50/ctw.
On the tariff front, importers expressed concern that this week’s announcement from the US Trump administration that steel derivative products, including electrical steel lamination and cores, as well as certain stainless steel automotive exhaust parts, would be added to products subject to 50 percent Section 232 tariffs, could further reduce already low import activity.
“From an importers’ standpoint, there’s just too much risk right now given what’s going on with Section 232 tariffs and ongoing AD cases,” he said. “Personally, I remain very hesitant to assume that level of risk.”
In the Mexican long steel markets, while 50 percent tariffs remain in place, pre-tariff rebar available vicinity Houston, Texas, on a loaded truck basis is discussed little changed at $40-42/cwt., ($800-840/nt or $937/mt to $959/mt), compared with earlier weekly estimates at $40-43/cwt., insiders said. As Mexico continues to deal with high export tariffs to the US, one Mexican trader told SteelOrbis that their direct sales of long steel to Canada via ship and rail have increase four-fold, helping to support recent price stability in the North Region in the face of unremarkable local demand.
In the imported wire rod markets, spot pricing gained a bit this week with wire rod mesh on a DDP loaded truck USGC basis reported about $0.50/cwt., higher at $42.50-43.50/cwt., ($850-870/nt or $937-959/mt), up from $42.00-43.00/cwt., ($840-860/nt or $926-948/mt), against stable ex-mill delivered domestic Midwest supply pricing reports at $46.50-$47.50/cwt., ($930-950/nt or $1,025-1,047/mt).
“We’re hearing reports of tight wire rod supply and rising freight rates on shipping,” said the SteelOrbis insider. “So basically, with a lack of shipments, buyers have less options, because there is less competition among shippers.”