Does US merchant bar decrease indicate a rebar drop in the near term?

Thursday, 06 August 2015 01:00:00 (GMT+3)   |   San Diego

After four major US long product producers announced an immediate $1.25 cwt. ($25/nt or $28/mt) price decrease for merchant bar this week, speculation about a rebar price decrease has only become louder. Sources tell SteelOrbis that a letter could come “any day”, although many expect mills will wait until the official scrap prices for August are announced. Until then, spot prices are still in the range of $31.50-$32.50 cwt. ($630-$650/nt or $694-$717/mt) ex-mill, with progressively fewer transactions taking place at the upper end of the range.

As for the import rebar market, it might have seemed for a brief moment that offers to the US from Turkey had finally hit bottom and were on their way back up, it was nothing more than a “dead cat bounce” according to one Gulf Coast-area trader. Filled order books at some Turkish mills resulted in higher offers that were quickly rescinded once it became clear that the overall trend for import rebar prices in the US was still decidedly down. As such, offer prices are stable this week in the range of $21.00-$22.00 cwt. ($463-$485/mt or $420-$440/nt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports—however, sources tell SteelOrbis that prices are still vulnerable.

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