US domestic plate spot prices have stabilized since mid-August despite continued competition from the import market.
Despite the typical summer slowdown, US domestic plate demand has been fairly steady over the last couple months, but less expensive import offer prices to the US compounded by plate imports with tags as much as $5.00 ($110/mt or $100/nt) under US domestic spot prices arriving at high levels since June have been pressuring domestic plate spot prices lower. So while domestic spot prices have stabilized in the last two weeks in the upper end of the $48.00-$50.00 cwt. ($1,058-$1,102/mt or $960-$1,000/nt) ex-Midwest mill range, that stability may be short-lived if import competition remains a prominent force in the US plate market.
US Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis (SIMA) data show that 107,650 mt (license data) of cut-to-length plate arrived in the US in August (as of August 30), compared to 95,612 mt (preliminary census data) arriving in July and 86,215 mt (census data) arriving in June. August imports also reached the highest level in two years, boosted by heavy imports from Russia (the US' top source of imported plate in August) Mexico and Brazil. Data indicated 24,417 mt of Russian cut-to-length plate arriving in August compared to 7,584 mt in July, 10,958 mt of plate from Mexico (compared to 4,310 mt in July) and 7,891 mt of Brazilian plate arriving in the US in August compared to 4,612 mt arriving in July.
Current import plate activity is also rather strong, and Russian plate prices of $44.00-$45.00 cwt. ($970-$992/mt or $880-$900/nt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports--unchanged in the last two weeks--may begin to rise in the next couple weeks because of consistent US demand. Even if US domestic spot prices do fall by the time imports placed today arrive, it isn't likely to be a dramatic decline, making import orders with Russian mills placed today still valuable when they arrive in December/January. On the other hand, Brazilian plate offer prices of $50.00-$51.00 cwt. ($1,102-$1,124/mt or $1,000-$1,020/nt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports, also neutral from mid-August, are too high for most US buyer to take any interest.