Although there have been no official increase announcements in the US domestic plate market since mid-December, spot prices have increased approximately $3.00 cwt. ($66/mt or $60/nt).
Domestic plate prices are in a broader range than previous weeks, as the surging prices and market volatility in other product lines has spilled over into the plate market. By far the most significant influence on plate prices has been the $60-$70/lt increase in scrap prices which has pushed spot prices on plate to $45.00-$48.00 cwt. ($992-$1,058/mt or $900-$960/nt) ex-Midwest mill for February delivery. The lower end of the range is up $3.00 cwt. from just before the New Year holiday, while the higher end of the range is up $4.00 cwt. ($88/mt or $80/nt). The lower end of the range, however, may only still be available for large tonnage buyers, and even then, only for the next one-to-two weeks when February order books are expected to close.
The approximate $3.00 cwt. increase over spot prices two weeks ago appears to only be the tip of the iceberg, and prices are expected to rise at least another $2.00 cwt. ($44/mt or $40/nt) for March deliveries, as asking prices from mills have already been reported anywhere from$50.00-$55.00 cwt. ($1,102-$1,213/mt or $1,000-$1,100/nt) for basic plate products with no applicable extras. But despite the quickening pace of the increases, purchasing activity remains stronger than it had been in November and much of December as a result of inventory restocking. "We've had customers we haven't heard from in quite some time come out of the woodwork and make some significant purchases" explained one Southeast distributor, indicating that demand levels are rising, albeit marginally.
Another driving force behind higher prices domestically is the availability of tons for spot market buyers. Industry insiders confirm that mediocre demand and lower capacity utilization rates over the past couple of months have lessened the amount of product available on the spot market, and therefore even the smallest uptick in demand is forcing lead times to move out rapidly, taking prices with them.
With higher US prices, an elevated interest in competitive import offers is expected; and although both Russian and Brazilian plate offers to the US have increased approximately $4.00 cwt. in the last two weeks, interest in the offers has not subsided. Both Brazilian and Russian plate offers for the US are now approximately $41.00-$44.00 cwt. ($904-$970/mt or $820-$880/nt) duty paid FOB loaded truck in US Gulf ports, about $4.00 cwt. below even the lowest US spot price. And with such a significant spread between US and offshore offers, coupled with the expectation that US prices will remain firm into April, and possibly even May, offshore mills have been increasingly successful at booking significant orders from US buyers.