This week, the range of domestic coil offers prices from European mills has remained mostly unchanged for December delivery, given the lack of demand in the region, coupled with high stocks which are leading to tight competition between distributors and service centers. However, most mills are still targeting price increases for January delivery coils to levels of €600/mt ex-works and higher, which are considered by most market players as “unlikely to be achievable” given that the steel market outlook continues to worsen for the EU market as demand and consumption decline amid the large share of imports in the market.
More specifically, offers from mills both in northern Europe and in Italy have remained relatively unchanged at €570-580/mt ex-works for December delivery. However, tradable prices in Italy are still voiced at €550/mt ex-works, the same as last week, while a number of transactions have been reported in northern Europe at €550-570/mt ex-works, up by €10/mt on the higher end of the range week on week.
At the same time, according to sources, mills in the north have been targeting €600-620/mt ex-works for January delivery HRC, while in Italy target prices have been voiced at €600/mt ex-works and above. “Europeans have been selling cheaply for prompt delivery, but now most are saying the fourth quarter is sold out and the first quarter is at higher prices, with some yet to be announced,” a market insider told SteelOrbis.
Notably, the forecast for the EU steel sector is worse than expected for 2024, according to EUROFER’s latest Economic and Steel Market Outlook. Apparent steel consumption will not recover in 2024 as previously projected (up 1.4 percent) but is instead expected to experience another recession (down 1.8 percent). Similarly, the outlook for steel-using sectors’ outputs has worsened for 2024 (-2.7 percent, against -1.6 percent before). Furthermore, according to EUROFER, the evolution of steel demand remains subject to high uncertainty and, even with a modest recovery projected in 2025 (up 3.8 percent), consumption volumes are likely to remain well below pre-pandemic levels.
In the import segment, most European customers have been holding back due to uncertainty over the future price trend, and dumping and quota risks, while most prices have moved sideways over the past week. Offers from Asian HRC suppliers have been estimated at €550-580/mt CFR, compared to €555-575/mt CFR last week. Offers from Indian suppliers have been voiced at €550-555/mt CFR, against €555-575/mt CFR last week, while offers from Taiwan have settled at €575/mt CFR, the same as last week. Offers for ex-South Korea HRC have been heard at €580/mt CFR. Besides, offers for ex-Turkey HRC have been reported at €585-600/mt CFR, including duty, versus €590-610/mt CFR last week.
