Business conditions for Russian HRC producers have not changed a lot over the past month. The domestic demand has remained at rather low levels due to the seasonal decline of construction activity and the effect of the high interest rates in the country. The new domestic flats prices were announced with a decrease, but a rebound is planned for January, although not much related to demand. From January 1, 2026, the Russian government is going to increase the VAT rate from 20 percent to 22 percent, and, in addition, some rise in the tariffs for local transportation is expected. As a result, both will be reflected in the prices for steel and for many other products. In the meantime, Russia remains active in exports and the mills have started sales for February shipments.
As regards exports, Russian mills are now offering HRC for February shipment and are focusing on traditional sales to Turkey and the MENA region. The sanctioned mill is in the market with $470-480/mt CFR offers to North Africa and the Middle East, while the latest deals to this region for production in the previous month stood at $455-470/mt CFR (to the GCC in particular). The FOB levels for new offers are estimated at $420-430/mt for shipments from the Baltic Sea. The non-sanctioned producer started February shipment sales at $500-505/mt CFR Turkey, but later on decreased its offers to $490-495/mt CFR. However, taking into account low offers from China ($471-474/mt CFR for non-VAT), the mill’s levels are not considered workable. According to sources, the Russian supplier has already traded some volumes at $485/mt CFR. The current ex-Black Sea FOB-based levels are estimated at $465-470/mt FOB.
In the local market, new prices have been announced for flats for December production. Currently, HRC offers from one of the largest suppliers in Russia are at $600-610/mt (RUB 57,000-58,000/mt) CPT, down from $608/mt (RUB 59,000/mt) CPT announced for the previous month. Local sheet prices for 8 mm are now at $547-557/mt (RUB 52,000-53,000/mt) CPT, while 16 mm material is available at $568-578/mt (RUB 54,000-55,000/mt) CPT. In addition, 4 mm HRS is on offer at $578-589/mt (RUB 55,000-56,000/mt) CPT, SteelOrbis has learned. “The prices for December [production] were decreased, but for January there will be a rise considering the increase in VAT and in the delivery cost [by 10 per cent],” a market source told SteelOrbis.
$1 = RUB 77.93.
Prices in local currency include 20 percent VAT.