According to the short range outlook of the World Steel Association (worldsteel), global steel demand will rise by 1.3 percent in the current year to 1.53 billion metric tons in 2017 following the one percent rise in 2016.
According to worldsteel, in 2017 the EU-28’s steel demand will increase 0.5 percent to 158.2 million mt, while steel demand of the NAFTA region will amount to 135.2 million mt, up 2.2 percent, both year on year. In the same year, the combined steel demand of Asia and Oceania will grow by one percent year on year to 1.02 billion mt. In 2017, China’s steel demand will total 681 million mt, remaining stable compared to the previous year and will decrease by two percent in 2018 to 667.4 million mt year on year. Steel demand in the developed economies will increase by 0.7 percent in 2017 and 1.2 percent in 2018, while steel demand in the emerging and developing economies excluding China, which accounts for 30 percent of the world total, is expected to grow by four percent in 2017 and then by 4.9 percent in 2018.
Commenting on the outlook, Mr T.V. Narendran, chairman of the worldsteel economics committee said, “In 2016, steel demand recovery was stronger than expected with the upside mostly coming from China. We believe in 2017 and 2018 we will see a cyclical upturn in steel demand with a continuing recovery in the developed economies and an accelerating growth momentum in the emerging and developing economies. We expect that Russia and Brazil will finally move out of their recessions. However, China, which accounts for 45 percent of global steel demand, is expected to return to a more subdued growth rate after its recent short uplift. For this reason, overall growth momentum will remain modest.
As stated in the report by worldsteel, China’s steel demand showed growth of 1.3 percent in 2016. While the Chinese economic outlook appears stable and steel demand continues to remain strong in the early part of 2017, this is expected to gradually decelerate as the government tries to retighten its real estate policies.
The report also stated that, having dealt with the structural problems and the fall in commodity prices, the Russian and Brazilian economies are stabilizing and expected to show modest growth in 2017. Russian growth will continue to pick up in 2018 as structural reforms take more effect. After the demonetization shock, the Indian economy is expected to resume growth, although on a slightly weakened basis. The ASEAN countries are expected to demonstrate solid growth in 2017-18.