Traders at IREPAS: US rebar prices expected to increase in Q4 2013

During the SteelOrbis Fall 2013 Conference and 69th IREPAS Meeting held in Istanbul, the main topic of interest for traders was the antidumping duty investigation petition filed by US rebar producers.
 
Turkish participants at the event, including steel producers and steel exporters, all stated that the dumping claim is groundless and that, even if a decision of injury is reached, dumping margins close to zero will be decided. Furthermore, the Turkish participants, including Serdar Koçtürk from the Turkish Steel Exporters' Association, categorically denied that any government incentives were being provided for the Turkish steel industry.
 
F.D. Baysal from Seba International told attendees, as the chairman of the Traders' Committee, that traders expect Turkish and Mexican rebar imports to the US to stop while the investigation is being carried out. However, Ugur Dalbeler, the CEO of Colakoglu Metalurji, replied by saying that they will continue selling rebar to the US and that their first cargo will be arrive at US ports by next January.
 
Some US-based traders speaking at the Traders' Committee Meeting expressed their concerns regarding the lack of alternative sources of supply besides Turkey, stating they could not name any supplier country other than Turkey which "can supply rebar in any size, in any grade, in any volume and at any time."
 
Some other traders said that the US domestic rebar prices will increase during the remainder of the current year and also in the first months of 2014, by another $30/mt.
 
F.D. Baysal said that traders are expecting scrap prices to go down further for a while and then to stabilize, while iron ore prices are expected to decline for longer than scrap prices.
 
Traders at the IREPAS meeting also evaluated the situation at the plants of Riva Acciaio in Italy, stressing that the matter is a political situation and that they expect the situation to return back to normal in a matter of weeks, adding that otherwise it would harm the whole steel supply chain in Italy.