Kim Marti at IREPAS: Concerns on oversupply from China are justified

Speaking at the SteelOrbis 2014 Fall Conference & 71st IREPAS Meeting in Berlin, Kim Marti, international sales director of Spanish steel producer CELSA Group, said that the key risks to the global economy, such as geopolitical tensions including conflicts in Ukraine and in the Africa/MENA region, should be closely monitored. He indicated that the long-term fundamentals for long steel products remain solid, with emerging economies expected to continue to drive long steel product demand, especially in Asia. However, despite demand growth, margins for EAF producers have been squeezed, while iron ore-based producers have been benefitting from relatively low iron ore prices.
 
Mr. Marti commented on the fear of oversupply from China in the market, stating that it is justified, pointing out that Chinese rebar production totaled almost 220 million mt in 2013. He said that the EU is still facing a period of low consumption compared to 2008-09 and is trying to adapt its production to the market by shutting down excess capacities.
 
According to the CELSA international sales director, global steel consumption grew by 3.1 percent in 2013, confirming its sustained growth since 2009. More than three percent growth is expected in both 2014 and 2015. Global apparent steel finished use is forecast at 1.52 billion mt in 2014, with long steel product consumption this year expected to reach 846 million mt. He went on to say that the Asian markets, which account for more than 70 percent of total long steel product consumption, continue to drive global consumption volumes and growth.
 
Regarding long steel product consumption in terms of the different products, Kim Marti said that rebar has gained market share and accounts for 43 percent of total long steel product consumption, with wire rod accounting for 27 percent, merchant bar for 24 percent, and sections for six percent. Overall annual growth in rebar consumption in 2014 is foreseen to reach 5.3 percent, with significant strength in North America (with a predicted rise of 7.8 percent) and signs of recovery in the EU (with an anticipated 5.9 percent increase in rebar consumption for the full year). Mr. Marti affirmed that the developing economies are driving global rebar consumption, with China accounting for 55 percent of total consumption.